Wall Street's renewed vigor over the past week has come from optimism about a US Federal Reserve cut in interest rates, yet it remains unclear what happens if and when the Fed delivers.
Analysts say markets have priced in a reduction in borrowing costs and will look for hints from the US central bank about further moves to keep the rally on track.
And some see turmoil in the market if the Fed does the unexpected or offers a message out of synch with sentiment on Wall Street.
In the week to Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lifted 2.51 percent to 13,442,52.
The broad market Standard & Poor's 500 index added 2.11 percent to 1,484.25 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ climbed 1.42 percent on the week to 2,602.18.
The key focus for the market will be Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, expected to cut its base rate, which has been at 5.25 percent since June last year.
Most analysts expect a reduction of 25 basis points, but some are betting on a more aggressive 50-point cut as a pre-emptive strike against recession. Still, some warn about taking the move for granted.
"Investors continue to look ahead to Tuesday's FOMC meeting acting as if a Fed decision to lower interest rates is a sure thing," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at DA Davidson.
"While we place the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates as being very high, there is a real possibility that, given recent rising inflation pressures, they might choose to pass, waiting to see more data regarding the inflation situation," he said.
Other analysts say it may be too simplistic to believe that a Fed rate cut can cure all the economic ills, with the US housing market in a painful recession and lenders hurting as well as consumers.
"Central banks are now more fearful that flagrant easing could inflate asset price bubbles -- global lessons learned from the US stock market froth that followed the 1998 Fed rate cuts and the US housing market froth that followed the 2001-2003 cuts," said Michael Gregory, an economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.
Some worry that the market may be disappointed with a quarter-point rate cut.
"A 25 basis-point move could be viewed as a Fed that is calm and in command, or complacent," said economist Ethan Harris at Lehman Brothers.
"A 50-point move could be viewed as either `getting ahead of the curve' or `a sign of panic.'"
Still, Harris said the Fed had little choice except to cut rates, and that the move will eventually soothe the market and help unblock credit.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.462 percent from 4.368 percent a week earlier, and that on the 30-year Treasury increased to 4.724 percent from 4.693 percent. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The Eurovision Song Contest has seen a surge in punter interest at the bookmakers, becoming a major betting event, experts said ahead of last night’s giant glamfest in Basel. “Eurovision has quietly become one of the biggest betting events of the year,” said Tomi Huttunen, senior manager of the Online Computer Finland (OCS) betting and casino platform. Betting sites have long been used to gauge which way voters might be leaning ahead of the world’s biggest televised live music event. However, bookmakers highlight a huge increase in engagement in recent years — and this year in particular. “We’ve already passed 2023’s total activity and
BIG BUCKS: Chairman Wei is expected to receive NT$34.12 million on a proposed NT$5 cash dividend plan, while the National Development Fund would get NT$8.27 billion Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, yesterday announced that its board of directors approved US$15.25 billion in capital appropriations for long-term expansion to meet growing demand. The funds are to be used for installing advanced technology and packaging capacity, expanding mature and specialty technology, and constructing fabs with facility systems, TSMC said in a statement. The board also approved a proposal to distribute a NT$5 cash dividend per share, based on first-quarter earnings per share of NT$13.94, it said. That surpasses the NT$4.50 dividend for the fourth quarter of last year. TSMC has said that while it is eager
‘IMMENSE SWAY’: The top 50 companies, based on market cap, shape everything from technology to consumer trends, advisory firm Visual Capitalist said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) was ranked the 10th-most valuable company globally this year, market information advisory firm Visual Capitalist said. TSMC sat on a market cap of about US$915 billion as of Monday last week, making it the 10th-most valuable company in the world and No. 1 in Asia, the publisher said in its “50 Most Valuable Companies in the World” list. Visual Capitalist described TSMC as the world’s largest dedicated semiconductor foundry operator that rolls out chips for major tech names such as US consumer electronics brand Apple Inc, and artificial intelligence (AI) chip designers Nvidia Corp and Advanced
Pegatron Corp (和碩), an iPhone assembler for Apple Inc, is to spend NT$5.64 billion (US$186.82 million) to acquire HTC Corp’s (宏達電) factories in Taoyuan and invest NT$578.57 million in its India subsidiary to expand manufacturing capacity, after its board approved the plans on Wednesday. The Taoyuan factories would expand production of consumer electronics, and communication and computing devices, while the India investment would boost production of communications devices and possibly automotive electronics later, a Pegatron official told the Taipei Times by telephone yesterday. Pegatron expects to complete the Taoyuan factory transaction in the third quarter, said the official, who declined to be