The nation's economy is experiencing a slowdown as the index of leading indicators last month edged down from March mainly on reducing export orders, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said in a press statement yesterday.
The index of leading indicators, a gauge for the nation's economic activity in the next three months, dropped 0.2 points to 110 last month.
Among the seven sub-indicators, the wholesale price index and money supply both showed rapid growth from the previous month, making positive contributions to the index.
The other five -- including customs-cleared exports, export orders and the number of construction licenses issued -- all showed declines, the CEPD said.
The index of coincident indicators, which follows the pace of economic activity, dropped 0.4 points to 109.6 last month.
The increase was driven by rising sales values in the manufacturing sector and the average monthly wage picking up in the sector from March, the agency said.
The total score of monitored indicators last month fell to 18 points from 23 in March, signaling a "yellow-blue" light that points to a slowdown after flashing a green light the previous month.
The CEPD uses a five-level spectrum to gauge domestic economic health, with blue indicating recession, yellow-blue a slowdown, green steady growth, yellow-red a slight overheating and red a serious overheating.
The agency also released a survey on manufacturers yesterday, whose business expectations slightly improved from March to last month.
In the poll, 16 percent of respondents expected the economy to improve over the next three months, up from 14 percent a month earlier, while 14 percent held a negative view, down from 12 percent.
Seventy percent of the producers surveyed, meanwhile, expected the nation's economic performance to remain unchanged, down from 74 percent in March.
The survey also showed that export orders last month were down 0.7 percent from the previous month but rose 6.7 percent year-on-year. Sales in the manufacturing sector were down 5 percent from March, up 1.4 percent from last year.
Although economic development is slowing down, the CEPD said there was still reason for cautious optimism about the outlook, as the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) last Friday raised its GDP growth forecast this year to 4.38 percent from the February estimate of 4.3 percent.
Exports will increase 6.8 percent this year, while imports will rise 5.4 percent, the DGBAS said. Private consumption is expected to grow 3 percent this year and consumer prices will rise 1.46 percent, it said.
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