A leading technology pundit believes that the "high-tech hype" -- fueled mainly by the financial markets -- has not hindered the fundamentals of the technology sector.
"It is all about human fickleness," said Michael Dertouzos, director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science, referring to the boom-bust pattern of technology stocks. "Otherwise, the technology sector is marching along nicely."
While he can't predict the timing of a recovery in the technology sector, he said the "fundamentals are there" and the growth opportunities for the technology sector are tremendous.
"People hyped too much about these activities, and now we are paying for it," said the Greece-born scientist, who has headed the MIT Computer Lab since 1974.
The idea of the "New Economy" -- which posits that efficiency gains derived from technology investment can help an economy grow perpetually with minimal inflation -- is another victim of the financial market's exaggeration, he said.
"It is nonsense," remarked Dertouzos, who has among others, authored the best-selling What Will Be: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives.
Indeed, he is interested in the long-term development of technology. One of his latest ventures is in human-centered computers.
"I am trying to start a movement about human centered computers -- so far, so good," he said. "It is moving, I want machines and computers to help human beings."
MIT is building a US$50 million "human-centered" project called Oxygen, in which Taiwanese firms such as Acer Inc (
In terms of growth in the so-called information marketplace, he said, "we are barely scratching the surface." The biggest growth will come from work performed at an office -- which is 60 percent of the US' GNP, 70 percent of France's, 60 percent of Japan's and about 50 percent of Taiwan's.
Office work in the knowledge economy adds up to around US$12 trillion, which is about half of the total economies of the rich world, he said.
And as the Internet renders geography irrelevant, part of this business can flow over the information marketplace. "I estimate one-third to 40 percent," he said.
But an Internet connection is the key. Currently just 300 million people are connected worldwide, or 5 percent of the world's population. "So we have a long way to go," he said.
Countries such as India have around 50 million skilled workers, who can do office work without going through retraining. These people could quadruple the GNP of India, he said.
While Dertouzos is here to speak about the knowledge-based economy, he is unusually realistic about its prospects. "[A] knowledge economy is exactly the same economy, we have, with some changes," he said. "Capital needed is smaller, location is not that important because natural resources are not[important] ? and labor is just as important if not more important, because it is moving up the ladder."
For Taiwan, he said that migration to countries with cheaper labor could do Taiwan no harm. "Taiwan's problem is that it is rich," he said. "And now the people who are poor are going to do the technology work for you ? it is time for other people to get richer."
But he said Taiwan can play a very important role in the software industry, not just building the hardware but "building the first layer of software which goes on the top of it."
WASHINGTON’S INCENTIVES: The CHIPS Act set aside US$39 billion in direct grants to persuade the world’s top semiconductor companies to make chips on US soil The US plans to award more than US$6 billion to Samsung Electronics Co, helping the chipmaker expand beyond a project in Texas it has already announced, people familiar with the matter said. The money from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act would be one of several major awards that the US Department of Commerce is expected to announce in the coming weeks, including a grant of more than US$5 billion to Samsung’s rival, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), people familiar with the plans said. The people spoke on condition of anonymity in advance of the official announcements. The federal funding for
HIGH DEMAND: The firm has strong capabilities of providing key components including liquid cooling technology needed for AI servers, chairman Young Liu said Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) yesterday revised its revenue outlook for this year to “significant” growth from a “neutral” view forecast five months ago, due to strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) servers from cloud service providers. Hon Hai, a major assembler of iPhones that is also known as Foxconn, expects AI server revenues to soar more than 40 percent annually this year, chairman Young Liu (劉揚偉) told investors. The robust growth would uplift revenue contribution from AI servers to 40 percent of the company’s overall server revenue this year, from 30 percent last year, Liu said. In the three-year period
LONG HAUL: Largan Energy Materials’ TNO-based lithium-ion batteries are expected to charge in five minutes and last about 20 years, far surpassing conventional technology Largan Precision Co (大立光) has formed a joint venture with the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI, 工研院) to produce fast-charging, long-life lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, mobile electronics and electric storage units, the camera lens supplier for Apple Inc’s iPhones said yesterday. Largan Energy Materials Co (萬溢能源材料), established in January, is developing high-energy, fast-charging, long-life lithium-ion batteries using titanium niobium oxide (TNO) anodes, it said. TNO-based batteries can be fully charged in five minutes and have a lifespan of 20 years, a major advantage over the two to four hours of charging time needed for conventional graphite-anode-based batteries, Largan said in a
Taiwan is one of the first countries to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, but because that is largely down to a single company it also represents a risk, former Google Taiwan managing director Chien Lee-feng (簡立峰) said at an AI forum in Taipei yesterday. Speaking at the forum on how generative AI can generate possibilities for all walks of life, Chien said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) — currently among the world’s 10 most-valuable companies due to continued optimism about AI — ensures Taiwan is one of the economies to benefit most from AI. “This is because AI is