The arrest last week of two British-educated men on spying charges in Moscow was less a Cold War-style incident than a Kremlin power game around who controls oil giant TNK-BP, observers said.
Russia's secret service said on Thursday that two Russian-American brothers had been charged with industrial espionage just a day after raids on the offices of TNK-BP and BP in Moscow.
"Business cards of representatives of the CIA and foreign defense departments" were found in the raid, security services said.
Despite the spy allegations, analysts say the key to the matter was control over Russia's third-largest oil company.
Half-owned by a group of Russian billionaires and half by British oil major BP, TNK-BP is a rarity in the Russian energy industry where state control now dominates.
Roland Nash, chief economist at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Moscow, notes that the arrests will inevitably remind investors of the way "the government wrested control of Sakhalin from Shell."
Shell operated Sakhalin-2, one of the biggest private oil and gas projects in the world, but was forced to sell to state-run gas giant Gazprom last year after coming under pressure from Russian authorities over alleged environmental violations.
Russian environmental authorities said on Friday that they would investigate TNK-BP's Samotlor oil field in Siberia, one of the largest in the country.
"The current events are consistent with the negotiating tactics of the Russian government in the past," said Chris Weafer, head of strategy at URALSIB bank in Moscow.
"The event is a surprise, but the fact that they are putting on pressure is not," he said.
TNK-BP has had trouble with the authorities before.
Last year, the company agreed to sell the Kovytka gas field in Siberia to Gazprom after being accused of being in breach of contract.
Now, the state wants the company to be put in Russian hands with Gazprom again the likely winner, analysts said.
"It has long been speculated that TNK-BP is on Gazprom's target acquisition list, and the events of the past few days will add to that," Nash wrote in an investment note. "TNK-BP now appears to be under considerable pressure to reach an agreement with Gazprom."
The move could also be influenced by the upcoming inauguration on May 7 of Russian president-elect Dmitry Medvedev, one analyst said.
"The government is maybe trying to push it through before Medvedev takes over," Weafer said. "So they can start the new president with a clean slate."
Another view is that the arrests could be a sign of the infighting amongst the Kremlin elite as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to step down.
"It is possible it is a fight of the clans," said Vladimir Pribylovsky from the Panorama research center in Moscow, adding that TNK-BP owners were supported by a security service faction that could be under attack
"The fight is under the carpet," Pribylovsky said, citing British prime minister Winston Churchill, who said that Kremlin politics were like bulldogs having a fight under a carpet -- lots of noise but you only know the winner when one emerges.
AIR SUPPORT: The Ministry of National Defense thanked the US for the delivery, adding that it was an indicator of the White House’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) and Representative to the US Alexander Yui on Friday attended a delivery ceremony for the first of Taiwan’s long-awaited 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets at a Lockheed Martin Corp factory in Greenville, South Carolina. “We are so proud to be the global home of the F-16 and to support Taiwan’s air defense capabilities,” US Representative William Timmons wrote on X, alongside a photograph of Taiwanese and US officials at the event. The F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan ordered have the same capabilities as aircraft that had been upgraded to F-16Vs. The batch of Lockheed Martin
GRIDLOCK: The National Fire Agency’s Special Search and Rescue team is on standby to travel to the countries to help out with the rescue effort A powerful earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighboring Thailand yesterday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed. Footage shared on social media from Myanmar’s second-largest city showed widespread destruction, raising fears that many were trapped under the rubble or killed. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with an epicenter near Mandalay in Myanmar, struck at midday and was followed by a strong magnitude 6.4 aftershock. The extent of death, injury and destruction — especially in Myanmar, which is embroiled in a civil war and where information is tightly controlled at the best of times —
Taiwan was ranked the fourth-safest country in the world with a score of 82.9, trailing only Andorra, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Numbeo’s Safety Index by Country report. Taiwan’s score improved by 0.1 points compared with last year’s mid-year report, which had Taiwan fourth with a score of 82.8. However, both scores were lower than in last year’s first review, when Taiwan scored 83.3, and are a long way from when Taiwan was named the second-safest country in the world in 2021, scoring 84.8. Taiwan ranked higher than Singapore in ninth with a score of 77.4 and Japan in 10th with
SECURITY RISK: If there is a conflict between China and Taiwan, ‘there would likely be significant consequences to global economic and security interests,’ it said China remains the top military and cyber threat to the US and continues to make progress on capabilities to seize Taiwan, a report by US intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. The report provides an overview of the “collective insights” of top US intelligence agencies about the security threats to the US posed by foreign nations and criminal organizations. In its Annual Threat Assessment, the agencies divided threats facing the US into two broad categories, “nonstate transnational criminals and terrorists” and “major state actors,” with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea named. Of those countries, “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat