The arrest last week of two British-educated men on spying charges in Moscow was less a Cold War-style incident than a Kremlin power game around who controls oil giant TNK-BP, observers said.
Russia's secret service said on Thursday that two Russian-American brothers had been charged with industrial espionage just a day after raids on the offices of TNK-BP and BP in Moscow.
"Business cards of representatives of the CIA and foreign defense departments" were found in the raid, security services said.
Despite the spy allegations, analysts say the key to the matter was control over Russia's third-largest oil company.
Half-owned by a group of Russian billionaires and half by British oil major BP, TNK-BP is a rarity in the Russian energy industry where state control now dominates.
Roland Nash, chief economist at Renaissance Capital investment bank in Moscow, notes that the arrests will inevitably remind investors of the way "the government wrested control of Sakhalin from Shell."
Shell operated Sakhalin-2, one of the biggest private oil and gas projects in the world, but was forced to sell to state-run gas giant Gazprom last year after coming under pressure from Russian authorities over alleged environmental violations.
Russian environmental authorities said on Friday that they would investigate TNK-BP's Samotlor oil field in Siberia, one of the largest in the country.
"The current events are consistent with the negotiating tactics of the Russian government in the past," said Chris Weafer, head of strategy at URALSIB bank in Moscow.
"The event is a surprise, but the fact that they are putting on pressure is not," he said.
TNK-BP has had trouble with the authorities before.
Last year, the company agreed to sell the Kovytka gas field in Siberia to Gazprom after being accused of being in breach of contract.
Now, the state wants the company to be put in Russian hands with Gazprom again the likely winner, analysts said.
"It has long been speculated that TNK-BP is on Gazprom's target acquisition list, and the events of the past few days will add to that," Nash wrote in an investment note. "TNK-BP now appears to be under considerable pressure to reach an agreement with Gazprom."
The move could also be influenced by the upcoming inauguration on May 7 of Russian president-elect Dmitry Medvedev, one analyst said.
"The government is maybe trying to push it through before Medvedev takes over," Weafer said. "So they can start the new president with a clean slate."
Another view is that the arrests could be a sign of the infighting amongst the Kremlin elite as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to step down.
"It is possible it is a fight of the clans," said Vladimir Pribylovsky from the Panorama research center in Moscow, adding that TNK-BP owners were supported by a security service faction that could be under attack
"The fight is under the carpet," Pribylovsky said, citing British prime minister Winston Churchill, who said that Kremlin politics were like bulldogs having a fight under a carpet -- lots of noise but you only know the winner when one emerges.
AMPHIBIOUS EXERCISES: The defense ministry said that it had detected 24 Chinese PLA Air Force planes entering Taiwan’s air defense zone over the previous 24 hours Chinese movements around Taiwan were “abnormal,” Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) said yesterday, flagging recent amphibious exercises in addition to drills Taipei has observed in China’s Fujian Province. Taiwan has reported a rise in Chinese military activity over the past week as dozens of fighters, drones, bombers and other aircraft, as well as warships, have operated around the nation. “Our initial analysis is that they are doing joint drills in September, including land, sea, air and amphibious,” Chiu told reporters at the legislature in Taipei. The “recent enemy situation is quite abnormal,” he said. The comments followed a statement from the
IN MOURNING: Tsai visited the site and spoke with family members of those killed, while all the major presidential candidates said they would temporarily halt campaigning A fire and subsequent explosions at a golf ball factory at Pingtung Technology Industrial Park (屏東科技產業園區) killed at least seven people, including four firefighters, and injured 98, while three were still missing, authorities said yesterday. The blaze at Launch Technologies Co’s (明揚國際) plant on Jingjian Road raged for more than 12 hours after it started at about 5pm on Friday, officials said. The Pingtung County Fire Bureau early yesterday used large excavators to search for missing people, while family members waited at the scene. Pingtung County Fire Bureau Director Hsu Mei-hsueh (許美雪) said the bureau received a call about the fire at 5:31pm
DETERRENCE: The president on Thursday is to launch the first indigenous submarine, which is to enter sea trials next month before being delivered to the navy next year Taiwan hopes to deploy at least two new, domestically developed submarines by 2027, and possibly equip later models with missiles to bolster its deterrence against the Chinese navy and protect key supply lines, the head of the program said. Taiwan has made the Indigenous Submarine Program a key part of an ambitious project to modernize its armed forces as Beijing stages almost daily military exercises. President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who initiated the program when she took office in 2016, is expected to launch the first of eight new submarines on Thursday under a plan that has drawn on expertise and technology from
SDG AGENDA: Eswatini’s king told the UN that including Taiwan in the body is an essential next step to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Marshall Islands President David Kabua on Wednesday called on the UN to rescind its interpretation of Resolution 2758, which bars Taiwan from participating in the international organization. There is still a “visible crack” in the UN, as it “will never be whole and complete without the meaningful participation of the 23 million people of Taiwan,” Kabua said in his address on the second day of the General Debate at the 78th General Assembly in New York. He also criticized the UN’s specialized agencies, meetings and mechanisms for what he described as their continuous efforts to close the doors to journalists and visitors
RSS