The future EU members of eastern Europe can look forward to strong economic growth in years to come, but analysts say there will be no Celtic miracle for the continent's poor cousins and it could take them decades to catch up to western Europe.
The 10 countries that are about to join the EU in May 2004 -- all but two of them former members of the Soviet Union -- do not at this stage appear capable of achieving the double-digit growth that Ireland has seen.
Though Poland experienced an economic boom in the mid-1990s, growth in central Europe has in recent years at best been 2 percentage points higher than in the EU.
Growth in the region so far this year has ranged from 1.3 percent in Poland to 3.9 percent in Hungary, according to Vienna's WIIW economic institute, an authority on eastern Europe.
The European Commission believes, however, that integration will serve as an economic shot in the arm for the 10 new EU members.
It predicted in 2001 that the eight former communist countries will achieve an average growth rate of 4.6 percent in the four years following enlargement, compared to only 2.9 percent if they had not become EU members.
The commission notably envisages that enlargement will finally convince those investors who have so far avoided eastern Europe.
The aspirant EU members have since the start of the 1990s already been benefitting from a strong increase in foreign direct investment, the key ingredient for economic development.
According to the WIIW, direct investment in the eight former communist countries totalled 134 billion euros (US$145 billion) at the end of 2001.
But privatisation projects are running out, especially in Hungary where foreign investment has slowed down considerably.
Concerned analysts point out that the countries of eastern Europe do not have enough national savings or the credit structures to sit out a decline.
But Edward Teather, an economist at UBS Warburg, is more optimistic.
"There is fair abundance of capital in the EU and stability and confidence will increase upon enlargement," he said.
Teather stressed that with the help of the EU, the public sector in the new member countries should be able to launch big infrastructure projects.
Their other strong points are their competitiveness, due to salaries being 500 euros (US$537) lower on average than in the wealthier members of the EU, and rising productivity.
"There will be set-backs, but by and large the future looks bright for these countries," Teather said.
AIR SUPPORT: The Ministry of National Defense thanked the US for the delivery, adding that it was an indicator of the White House’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) and Representative to the US Alexander Yui on Friday attended a delivery ceremony for the first of Taiwan’s long-awaited 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets at a Lockheed Martin Corp factory in Greenville, South Carolina. “We are so proud to be the global home of the F-16 and to support Taiwan’s air defense capabilities,” US Representative William Timmons wrote on X, alongside a photograph of Taiwanese and US officials at the event. The F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan ordered have the same capabilities as aircraft that had been upgraded to F-16Vs. The batch of Lockheed Martin
GRIDLOCK: The National Fire Agency’s Special Search and Rescue team is on standby to travel to the countries to help out with the rescue effort A powerful earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighboring Thailand yesterday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed. Footage shared on social media from Myanmar’s second-largest city showed widespread destruction, raising fears that many were trapped under the rubble or killed. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with an epicenter near Mandalay in Myanmar, struck at midday and was followed by a strong magnitude 6.4 aftershock. The extent of death, injury and destruction — especially in Myanmar, which is embroiled in a civil war and where information is tightly controlled at the best of times —
Taiwan was ranked the fourth-safest country in the world with a score of 82.9, trailing only Andorra, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Numbeo’s Safety Index by Country report. Taiwan’s score improved by 0.1 points compared with last year’s mid-year report, which had Taiwan fourth with a score of 82.8. However, both scores were lower than in last year’s first review, when Taiwan scored 83.3, and are a long way from when Taiwan was named the second-safest country in the world in 2021, scoring 84.8. Taiwan ranked higher than Singapore in ninth with a score of 77.4 and Japan in 10th with
China's military today said it began joint army, navy and rocket force exercises around Taiwan to "serve as a stern warning and powerful deterrent against Taiwanese independence," calling President William Lai (賴清德) a "parasite." The exercises come after Lai called Beijing a "foreign hostile force" last month. More than 10 Chinese military ships approached close to Taiwan's 24 nautical mile (44.4km) contiguous zone this morning and Taiwan sent its own warships to respond, two senior Taiwanese officials said. Taiwan has not yet detected any live fire by the Chinese military so far, one of the officials said. The drills took place after US Secretary