The future EU members of eastern Europe can look forward to strong economic growth in years to come, but analysts say there will be no Celtic miracle for the continent's poor cousins and it could take them decades to catch up to western Europe.
The 10 countries that are about to join the EU in May 2004 -- all but two of them former members of the Soviet Union -- do not at this stage appear capable of achieving the double-digit growth that Ireland has seen.
Though Poland experienced an economic boom in the mid-1990s, growth in central Europe has in recent years at best been 2 percentage points higher than in the EU.
Growth in the region so far this year has ranged from 1.3 percent in Poland to 3.9 percent in Hungary, according to Vienna's WIIW economic institute, an authority on eastern Europe.
The European Commission believes, however, that integration will serve as an economic shot in the arm for the 10 new EU members.
It predicted in 2001 that the eight former communist countries will achieve an average growth rate of 4.6 percent in the four years following enlargement, compared to only 2.9 percent if they had not become EU members.
The commission notably envisages that enlargement will finally convince those investors who have so far avoided eastern Europe.
The aspirant EU members have since the start of the 1990s already been benefitting from a strong increase in foreign direct investment, the key ingredient for economic development.
According to the WIIW, direct investment in the eight former communist countries totalled 134 billion euros (US$145 billion) at the end of 2001.
But privatisation projects are running out, especially in Hungary where foreign investment has slowed down considerably.
Concerned analysts point out that the countries of eastern Europe do not have enough national savings or the credit structures to sit out a decline.
But Edward Teather, an economist at UBS Warburg, is more optimistic.
"There is fair abundance of capital in the EU and stability and confidence will increase upon enlargement," he said.
Teather stressed that with the help of the EU, the public sector in the new member countries should be able to launch big infrastructure projects.
Their other strong points are their competitiveness, due to salaries being 500 euros (US$537) lower on average than in the wealthier members of the EU, and rising productivity.
"There will be set-backs, but by and large the future looks bright for these countries," Teather said.
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