The US index of leading economic indicators fell during April, the first drop in seven months, pointing to a moderating pace of expansion.
Lower stock prices, rising jobless claims and a dip in consumer confidence contributed to the 0.4 percent decline in the Conference Board's index, a gauge of the economy's likely performance over the next three to six months. The index had risen 0.1 percent in March, and April's decrease was twice what analysts had forecast.
The index last fell in September, when terrorists attacked New York and Washington. While the economy has rebounded from a recession that began in March 2001, a statement by Vice President Dick Cheney that further attacks are "almost a certainty" drove down share prices. Companies that are reporting higher orders, such as National Semiconductor Corp, are still eliminating jobs to safeguard profits.
"The signal from the indicators is that the recovery is developing quite slowly," said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist. "The recovery in the industrial core remains weak. The consumer sector has seen income growth cut by employment cutbacks and moderating growth in wages."
The US government's budget surplus narrowed in April to US$67.2 billion from US$189.8 billion a year earlier, the Treasury Department said. Lower tax withholding rates and a weak economy depressed receipts. Seven months into the fiscal year, the government is running a US$66.5 billion deficit, compared with a US$165 billion surplus in the first seven months of last year.
Concern about profits also drove down stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 124 points, or 1.2 percent, to close at 10,229.50. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 40 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,701.59.
Treasury securities rose, as the Conference Board's report bolstered investor expectations that Federal Reserve policy makers will keep interest rates unchanged at least until mid-August. The 4 7/8 percent note that matures in February 2012 gained almost 1/2 point, pushing down its yield 7 basis points to 5.19 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
The economy expanded in the first quarter at a 5.8 percent annual rate, the fastest in two years. Growth will probably cool to a 3.1 percent pace this quarter as consumer spending slows and business investment is slow to pick up, according to the latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey.
Fed officials say the economy is likely to benefit from low inflation and improved efficiencies.
"It looks to me right now that we have clearly healthy growth in productivity in the economy," Gary Stern, president of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis, said. "That's a plus."
Combined with "moderate growth in demand, that would seem to imply continuation of low inflation and improving profitability over time," Stern said in an interview.
Stern is the latest voting member of the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee to suggest the central bank may hold off on raising interest rates for some time. The benchmark overnight bank lending rate has been at 1.75 percent, a 40-year low, for the past five months.
AIR SUPPORT: The Ministry of National Defense thanked the US for the delivery, adding that it was an indicator of the White House’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) and Representative to the US Alexander Yui on Friday attended a delivery ceremony for the first of Taiwan’s long-awaited 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets at a Lockheed Martin Corp factory in Greenville, South Carolina. “We are so proud to be the global home of the F-16 and to support Taiwan’s air defense capabilities,” US Representative William Timmons wrote on X, alongside a photograph of Taiwanese and US officials at the event. The F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan ordered have the same capabilities as aircraft that had been upgraded to F-16Vs. The batch of Lockheed Martin
GRIDLOCK: The National Fire Agency’s Special Search and Rescue team is on standby to travel to the countries to help out with the rescue effort A powerful earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighboring Thailand yesterday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed. Footage shared on social media from Myanmar’s second-largest city showed widespread destruction, raising fears that many were trapped under the rubble or killed. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with an epicenter near Mandalay in Myanmar, struck at midday and was followed by a strong magnitude 6.4 aftershock. The extent of death, injury and destruction — especially in Myanmar, which is embroiled in a civil war and where information is tightly controlled at the best of times —
Taiwan was ranked the fourth-safest country in the world with a score of 82.9, trailing only Andorra, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Numbeo’s Safety Index by Country report. Taiwan’s score improved by 0.1 points compared with last year’s mid-year report, which had Taiwan fourth with a score of 82.8. However, both scores were lower than in last year’s first review, when Taiwan scored 83.3, and are a long way from when Taiwan was named the second-safest country in the world in 2021, scoring 84.8. Taiwan ranked higher than Singapore in ninth with a score of 77.4 and Japan in 10th with
SECURITY RISK: If there is a conflict between China and Taiwan, ‘there would likely be significant consequences to global economic and security interests,’ it said China remains the top military and cyber threat to the US and continues to make progress on capabilities to seize Taiwan, a report by US intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. The report provides an overview of the “collective insights” of top US intelligence agencies about the security threats to the US posed by foreign nations and criminal organizations. In its Annual Threat Assessment, the agencies divided threats facing the US into two broad categories, “nonstate transnational criminals and terrorists” and “major state actors,” with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea named. Of those countries, “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat