Sun, Jan 20, 2002 page11

• Firms gun-shy about Afghanistan

  • AP
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  America has a lot. Afghanistan needs everything. But US companies capable of selling to that shattered country are balking at doing business there.

  A conference of international donors this weekend could speed up the release of billions to rebuild Afghanistan, opening potentially lucrative business opportunities.

  However, big US companies, even traditional risk-takers, are gun shy. "There are still bombs falling, there are still people being shot," says Alexander Winslow, speaking for engineering giant Bechtel.

  "As of now, we have no plans where Afghanistan is concerned."

  New York business analyst Jeffrey Rogers says he can't imagine a corporate leader telling stockholders he's found a great investment opportunity -- in Afghanistan. The economy is too weak here and the danger too great there.

  "It's just not the kind of risk anyone is prepared to take right now," he said. "I can't imagine they will take a risk like that for some time."

  In past times and other places, US companies have ventured into unsettled foreign lands, drawn by low operating costs, big financial incentives and a local corporate vacuum.

  Afghanistan's reputation for banditry and chaos is so far proving too intimidating even for them.

  "We're not talking about antique companies or rug manufacturers," said Benjamin Danvers of Anderson Consulting in Los Angeles. "There would have to be massive amounts of money to draw in major energy companies and major telecommunications companies. And when that money is gone, will the companies stay?"

  Bechtel is busy in other recent hotspots of conflict, building a US$1.3 billion gas treatment plant in Abu Dhabi and a US$900 million highway in Croatia. Afghanistan is getting a pass for now.

  Although Afghanistan sorely needs the basics, several US telecommunications companies also said they were not interested.

  Lucent Technologies, which has built telephone systems in several African nations, said Afghanistan was not in its future. Sprint, which took a government contract to build a telecommunications system in Bosnia, was skeptical, too.

  ``It's probably not something we would do,'' said Bill Brougham, Sprint's director of program management. ``If the military asked us to support them, safety would be the highest thing on our agenda.''

  Verizon and AT&T made similar comments.

  Visiting Afghanistan this week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said America is committed to the country's future and will do much to help. "This country needs everything," he said. "It needs a banking system. It needs a health care system. It needs a sanitation system. It needs a phone system. It needs road construction. Everything you can imagine."

  Drawing in business is a prime topic at the donors meeting in Tokyo today. The UN Development Program will present a plan to rebuild the country and an estimate of the cost. So far, US$1.3 billion has been pledged by a group that includes the US, Japan, Russia and Britain. Experts say rebuilding could cost US$6 billion over five years.

  Past attempts by US businesses to put down roots in Afghanistan have been thwarted by conflict.

  In the 1990s, a group of seven companies planned a US$2 billion gas pipeline between Pakistan and Turkmenistan, via Afghanistan. The deal was dropped in 1998 when the US attacked an Afghan base of Osama bin Laden in retaliation against the bombing of US embassies in Africa.

  Unocal, the lead investor in the deal, has turned its attention to building a pipeline from Bangladesh to India.

  "We have shifted our priorities toward other parts of the world and other important ventures," said Teresa Covington, speaking for the company. "You can't just turn back around after leaving a US$2 billion deal. We have a full plate."

  Although companies in Korea and Japan were involved, too, energy analysts say it is unlikely the Afghan pipeline could be done without a major US company.
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