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• Bhutan rolls out birthrate initiative

  ‘EXISTENTIAL CRISIS’? Bhutan is worried about falling births and outward migration, but some say a declining population should not automatically be seen as a crisis

  • AFP, THIMPHU
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  Bhutan is offering families cash incentives to have more children as the tiny Himalayan kingdom grapples with a nosediving birthrate and a growing exodus of young people seeking opportunities abroad.

  Annual births have dropped by more than one-quarter over the past decade, compounding the country’s loss of youngsters to migration.

  Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay has repeatedly rung the alarm over the population slump, calling it an “existential” crisis, the state’s Bhutan Broadcasting Service said.

  

  Bhutanese students rest at the Royal University of Bhutan in Thimphu on Aug. 23, 2018.

  Photo: AFP

  “The evidence is unambiguous — Bhutan’s fertility has declined to near or below replacement level,” Tobgay wrote in the introduction to the government’s “Third Child Plus” program launched last month.

  The scheme provides monthly payments of US$105 for each third or subsequent child until they turn three.

  Civil servant Khandu Wangmo welcomed the incentive, but questioned whether cash payments alone would persuade families to have more children.

  “It is a good initiative, because it encourages families to have three or more children,” she said. “However, its impact may be limited if the cost of raising children, housing and childcare remains high.”

  Births of a third or more children, the focus of the new scheme, have fallen 27 percent since 2020, the report said.

  Bhutan’s fertility rate has fallen to about 1.8 children per woman, below the replacement level, while the share of people aged 65 and older is projected to rise from about 6 percent to 17 percent by 2050, UN estimates showed.

  The government fears that falling births, combined with sustained outward migration, would leave too few working-age people to support the economy and an aging population.

  More than 71,000 Bhutanese were abroad as of May, with 39,000 — about 55 percent of the overseas population — in Australia, the report said.

  “While migration brings remittance benefits, its concentration among prime working and reproductive ages further constrains labor force participation, domestic fertility and long-term population momentum,” the briefing note said.

  Experts said the reasons behind smaller families are complex, ranging from rising living and childcare costs to changing priorities.

  The UN Population Fund, which supported the program, advocates to “expand choices for everyone” through affordable childcare and supportive social policies, rather than simply raising birth numbers.

  Bhutan’s demographic worries mirror trends across much of Asia.

  Bhutan once promoted family planning through its “Small Family, Happy Family” campaign launched in 1974, helping drive fertility down over several decades.

  The 1990s saw an exodus of more than 100,000 ethnic Nepali-speakers — about one-sixth of Bhutan’s population at the time — as the kingdom tightened immigration policies.

  Now, policymakers are seeking to reverse that trend.

  Tobgay, addressing parliament last month, cited overseas migration as Bhutan’s “most pressing challenge,” saying that bolstering the economy, creating quality jobs and improving living conditions were essential to slowing the exodus.

  Anthropologist Shawn Rowlands said Bhutan’s demographic transition had been unusually swift.

  “Given the fact that it has gone from a high of about 6.6 in the 1990s, to about 1.8 today, this is quite a remarkable demographic shift,” he said. “It has been exacerbated by the large-scale trend of young Bhutanese emigrating overseas for work.”

  Yet, Rowlands questioned whether a declining population should automatically be viewed as a crisis.

  “Higher access to education and job opportunities lead to fewer women having children,” she said. “I do not see that as a bad thing at all.”
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