US-China tensions have the US’ closest allies in Asia strengthening their militaries. In a boost to US President Joe Biden’s diplomatic efforts, that trend is extending to some Southeast Asian nations that have recently kept the US at arm’s length.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is looking to buy Chinook helicopters and accelerate talks to implement a defense cooperation pact that would give the US military greater access in the country. The moves come six years after then-Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte ended joint patrols with US forces and sought more weapons from China.
Indonesia has expanded joint exercises with the US, unveiled a US$125 billion military modernization plan last year and is holding talks over the purchase of dozens of F-15EX jets.
Photo: REUTERS
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin praised the “significant advancements” in the relationship after meeting Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto last month.
Wary of being forced to pick sides between the US and China, Southeast Asian nations have historically struggled to find a middle ground. Although many regional governments count on the US as a key security partner, China has been ASEAN’s biggest economic ally for 13 consecutive years, with two-way trade exceeding US$500 billion this year.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) more assertive foreign policy is shifting that equation for some countries as Beijing accelerates its military development and reiterates claims to Taiwan and a huge swath of the South China Sea. Regional governments have also been frustrated that efforts to negotiate a code of conduct between China and ASEAN in the South China Sea have not progressed.
“There’s a better appreciation that the US is an important factor of the strategic equation here and it’s in everybody’s interest that you stay around, and that’s a big change,” former Singaporean permanent secretary for foreign affairs Bilahari Kausikan said.
“The Biden administration is making all the right moves, but I am also somewhat skeptical,” said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.
The US looks at Indonesia “as if they should be this natural partner and yet they’re very critical of US freedom of navigation operations,” he said, referring to the US practice of sending warships through the Taiwan Strait.
Officials in Beijing have pushed back on the US outreach, slamming what they call a “Cold War” mindset in Washington.
China has pushed an alternative to the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, trying to assuage regional suspicions of its intentions by emphasizing shared economic benefits.
Asia Program director of the German Marshall Fund Bonnie Glaser said the developments in the region — but the Philippines especially — are likely getting attention in Beijing even if China is not reacting much publicly.
“My guess is that they note the trend and will privately suggest to some interlocutors in Southeast Asia that it isn’t in their interests to align themselves too closely with the US,” Glaser said.
The affinity in ASEAN for US weaponry or joint exercises does not mean those countries would back Washington in a conflict, let alone take part in one.
Frustrated by their own continuing disputes with a strengthening China, they mostly want a stronger deterrent so they cannot be totally dominated, said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute who specializes in regional security issues.
If push comes to shove, “at least they could give China a bloody nose,” he said.
The Taiwan crisis has complicated matters further. US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei in August was seen in some ASEAN capitals as a step too far, unnecessarily provoking China.
Beijing responded to the visit by unleashing its most comprehensive military drills ever around the nation.
In a sign of the region’s concerns, Singaporean Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan said last week that the geopolitical situation has become so bad that “the stage is almost preset” for a miscalculation or accident, akin to the events precipitating World War I.
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