Senegal was holding legislative elections yesterday, a vital test for opposition parties which are trying to minimize the ruling party’s influence before the 2024 presidential election amid worries that Senegalese President Macky Sall might seek a third term.
About 7 million voters were eligible to elect 165 deputies in the National Assembly amid a politically tense atmosphere in the West African nation. Violent protests broke out last year after Sall’s main opponent, Ousmane Sonko, was arrested on rape charges and more than a dozen people were killed. Sonko, who came in third in the 2019 election, denies the allegations and his supporters have been vocal about their opposition to the president.
This year, he and another of Sall’s major opponents were disqualified as candidates, which sparked more widespread anger and protests in which three people died in June.
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Senegal, with a population of 17 million, is known for its stability in a region that has seen coups in three countries since 2020 and where leaders have changed laws to remain in power for third terms.
Yesterday’s election would give a clearer indication of what could happen in 2024.
“For [the ruling party], it is a question of doing everything to maintain an absolute majority in the National Assembly in order to be able to govern quietly until 2024 ... and guarding the possibility of passing certain laws to prepare for all eventualities at the end of Sall’s second term,” political analyst Mame Ngor Ngom said.
Even though Sonko’s candidacy was rejected by the Constitutional Council, he has organized opposition supporters across Senegal.
A victory for the opposition “would be synonymous with the rejection of a possible third candidacy for Sall and a probable victory in the next presidential election,” Ngom said.
Sall’s Benno Bokk Yakaar ruling party holds 75 percent of the legislature’s seats.
Serigne Thiam, a political science expert at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar, said the opposition is pushing the subject of a possible third term over other issues.
“If the opposition wins, the president will no longer be able to think of a third term. On the other hand, if the ruling power wins the ballot, its supporters can push the president toward a third term,” he said.
Sall has not talked about a third term, but has promised to speak today.
Dissatisfaction with Sall has risen as possible adversaries — including the popular former mayor of Dakar, Khalifa Sall, and ex-president Abdoulaye Wade’s son Karim Wade — have been targeted by the judiciary and disqualified from running for office. Many accuse Sall of using his power to eliminate opponents.
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