Ireland could face new elections when a political crisis comes to a head next week, bringing instability to Dublin just after it started flexing its muscles in Brexit negotiations.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar is resisting calls by the country’s second-largest party, Fianna Fail, for his deputy to resign over a long-running police whistle-blowing scandal.
Fianna Fail has tabled a motion of no confidence in Irish Deputy Prime Minister Frances Fitzgerald in parliament on Tuesday — and if it goes ahead, the minority Fine Gael government could fall.
After talks with Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin on Friday, Varadkar said they aimed to resolve the crisis.
“I don’t want there to be a general election. I don’t think Micheal Martin wants one either,” he said.
However, on Saturday, he repeated again that he believed his deputy had “done nothing wrong” in a controversy which relates to her time as minister of justice between 2014 and last year.
Fitzgerald faces questions about what she knew about the smearing of police whistle-blower Maurice McCabe, a row that has already caused the resignation of two police chiefs and a minister of justice.
The scandal also contributed to the departure of former Irish prime minister Enda Kenny, who was replaced by Varadkar in June.
The stand-off comes as Ireland seeks guarantees from London over the border with British-controlled Northern Ireland after it leaves the EU.
EU leaders — including Varadkar — are to decide at a summit next month whether enough progress has been made to move Brexit talks to the next stage.
Varadkar wants commitments that the border will remain completely open, saying that any new controls risk endangering the peace process, as well as hitting the economy on both sides.
Analysts suggest that neither of the two main Irish parties want a new election so soon after the February last year vote, when Fine Gael was forced to seek the support of Fianna Fail to govern.
However, the positions of both sides have become entrenched.
“The main players walked themselves into a corner,” said David Farrell, a politics professor at University College Dublin, adding that the situation was mostly an “accident of circumstances.”
Michael Marsh, from Trinity College Dublin, said the whistle-blowing row “certainly will not be the issue on the doorsteps, given a housing crisis, Brexit and economic recovery.”
However, he said Martin was “being pushed by some of those behind him” and perhaps did not want to lose ground to Sinn Fein, the third-largest party, which has also tabled a no-confidence motion.
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