Late summer rains and the growing importance of privately produced crops mean North Korea is likely to avoid acute food shortages this year despite earlier fears of drought and mounting international sanctions, defectors and experts say.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in July warned of the worst drought in 16 years in the North, saying there were “serious concerns” about a lack of rainfall in key cereal-producing areas.
“People said they delayed planting because it was too dry in the early spring, but right after that it rained,” said Kang Mi-jin at the Seoul-based Daily NK, a Web site run by defectors.
“Crop conditions are fine now,” said Kang, who said she had crosschecked the harvest with several sources inside the North.
Weather data for areas in China that border North Korea’s main crop zones show rains picked up from last month, helping to alleviate dry conditions.
US Department of Agriculture satellite images suggest North Korea’s crop yields will be similar to last year, said Kim Young-hui, a North Korean defector and a specialist in the country’s economy at Korea Finance Corp in Seoul.
North Korea experienced a crippling famine in the 1990s when a combination of bad weather, economic mismanagement and the demise of fuel subsidies from the Soviet Union all but destroyed its state-run Public Distribution System (PDS) of rationing.
The FAO report, which described the PDS as the “main source of food” for about 70 percent of the population, said increased food imports would be required to ensure adequate food supplies for the most at-risk groups, including children and elderly.
However, the rise of privately produced food sold in North Korean markets has slowly overtaken the PDS as the primary distributor of food, a factor which experts say official UN reports overlook.
The reports, often produced in conjunction with the North Korean government, might not be able to focus on markets given the political sensitivity of inherently capitalist activity in a state which still outwardly professes to maintain a Soviet-style command economy, experts say.
“Many people rely completely on the markets and off-the-books private farming for their food,” said Sokeel Park of Liberty in North Korea, an organization which aids defectors.
“Corrupt officials will also siphon off government supplies and sell them for profit,” Park said. “This means international agencies’ regurgitation of Pyongyang’s official food data should be taken with a pinch of salt.”
In the years since the famine, farmers have also been granted increasing autonomy at local levels to proactively change crops, staving off the risk of food shortages, and reducing the reliance on imports.
North Korea’s grain imports totaled US$26.5 million last year, down from US$139.2 million in 2012, according to the state-run Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency.
January to June imports this year were just US$10.6 million, albeit up sharply on the US$3 million over the same period a year ago.
The UN’s World Food Programme said there was still very little direct information available on how important markets are for household food access.
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