Congressman John Murtha, a decorated war veteran who called recently for an immediate withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, predicted most will leave the country within a year because the Army is "broken, worn out" and "living hand-to-mouth."
Murtha repeated his belief on Wednesday that troops will be pulled from Iraq before the end of next year, saying US President George W. Bush will make the withdrawal appear as though the US is "staying the course."
"I predict he'll make it look like we're staying the course," Murtha said in an address to community and business leaders in Latrobe, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported. "Staying the course is not a policy," he added.
PHOTO: AFP
Two weeks ago, Murtha called for US troops to begin returning home and said a complete pullout could be achieved in six months. He introduced a resolution in the House that would force the president to withdraw the 160,000 troops "at the earliest practicable date."
Murtha, 73, the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, also said he was wrong to vote to support the war.
"I admit I made a mistake when I voted for war," Murtha said. "I'm looking at the future of the United States military," he said.
Murtha said the war may keep the US military from meeting future threats to national security. The Pennsylvania National Guard is "stretched so thin" that it won't be able to send fully equipped units to Iraq next year, he said.
Spokesman for the Pennsylvania National Guard at Fort Indiantown Gap Lieutenant Colonel Chris Cleaver said some guard units had to leave equipment in Iraq when they returned to the US, which could cause training problems here.
But Cleaver also said most of the 2,100 Guard troops now deployed with the 2nd Brigade Combat Team can't be sent back to Iraq for a second tour of duty anyway, because of regulations that limit redeployment.
`robust' insurgency
Meanwhile, a new study released on Thursday says that despite US claims of progress in quelling the insurgency in Iraq, it remains as robust as ever -- and could grow a good deal stronger.
The study by two veteran defense analysts working for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy also said the US operation in Iraq was at a "tipping point" that will last for six to nine months.
"I think the outcome of this tipping period is probably going to dictate whether or not the US effort in Iraq succeeds or fails," analyst Jeffrey White said at a lunch unveiling the report.
The study said the insurgency, comprised of nationalists, members of Saddam Hussein's toppled regime and foreign Islamic fighters, showed no sign of losing steam 32 months after the US-led invasion.
"Although thousands of insurgents have been killed and tens of thousands of Iraqis have been detained ... incident and casualty data reinforce the impression that the insurgency is as robust and lethal as ever," it said.
Moreover, the researchers said, the insurgency has managed to exploit only a fraction of the disgruntled minority Sunni Muslim population with any kind of military training.
"Should the insurgency succeed in exploiting this untapped potential, it could greatly increase its military capabilities," they wrote.
The report was prepared by White, who spent 34 years at the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, and Michael Eisenstadt, a former civilian-military analyst with the US army.
The tone contrasted with the assertion in the "national strategy for victory in Iraq" unveiled by Bush on Wednesday that US forces were making "significant progress" in containing the insurgency.
Eisenstadt and White said the war in Iraq was still winnable, but added that the fight "will be protracted and costly, and is likely to be punctuated by additional setbacks."
US officials cited by the report estimated that the Sunni insurgency counted up to 20,000 members, including 3,500 active fighters. White said the total number of supporters could top 100,000.
While Washington has billed Iraq as the central front in its war on terror, White said foreign jihadists represented only 5-7 percent of the insurgency and did not account for the majority of attacks or fatalities.
But he said say the anti-US forces were making extensive use of religion and, in a new development, former members of Saddam's largely secular regime were identifying increasingly with the Islamists.
"There is some kind of merging going on," White told the lunchtime audience. "Whether this is a marriage of convenience or a marriage of commitment remains to be seen."
The report said the insurgency had no hierarchy, but was a "web of networks" drawing financial support from inside and outside Iraq. It said support from Syria and Iran was "not insignificant" but not essential.
"The insurgency has access to all the weapons, explosives, financial resources, and trained manpower it needs, in amounts sufficient to sustain current activity levels indefinitely -- assuming continued Sunni political support," it said.
The analysts said the insurgents had scored "important tactical and operational successes" while establishing themselves as a major force in the Sunni community and sowing doubts in the US about the continued presence of 160,000 US troops.
"This isn't just random activity or terrorist activity," White said. "The insurgents are actually conducting a purposeful kind of strategy in Iraq and are trying to counter the very kinds of things that we're trying to do."
But the report noted the insurgents were vulnerable on several counts, lacking a unified leadership and unqualified support from many Sunnis, and tarred by the brutality of the jihadists' attacks on civilians.
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