It is hard to think of a single month during Silvio Berlusconi's current term as Italian prime minister that has been tranquil or wholly upbeat. The twin tempests of Italian politics and Berlusconi's provocative, flamboyant nature seem to forbid such a lull.
But it is impossible to think of a month that has provided more setbacks and embarrassments for Berlusconi than this one. As the year draws to a close, he finds himself at an especially difficult juncture, the result of a seemingly unstoppable tide of bad news.
Less than two weeks ago, un-der his embattled stewardship, the EU failed to reach agreement on a constitution.
Then Italy's president, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, refused to sign legislation regarding media ownership that Berlusconi's allies had pushed through parliament and that his opponents said was designed to serve his vast business interests. It was an unusual rejection that bolstered opponents' charges that Berlusconi maintains unacceptable conflicts of interest.
Finally, Parmalat, the giant Italian dairy group, began to drown in scandal and sink into bankruptcy, a development that jeopardizes thousands of Italian jobs.
"He has not been lucky at all," said Carlo Secchi, the head of Bocconi University in Milan, assessing the prime minister's predicament.
"Mr. Berlusconi must be very careful in the coming weeks," he said.
Although Italian governments have fallen with stunning regularity over the last half century, neither Secchi nor other political experts and analysts predicted an imminent demise for Berlusconi's center-right coalition.
His previous government, in 1994, collapsed after seven months. This one has lasted two-and-a-half years, and at his annual year-end news conference here last week, Berlusconi predicted that he would remain in office for at least another decade.
His usual brashness was, however, tempered by an unusual acknowledgment of his troubles.
"It was a complicated and negative year," he said.
Berlusconi was referring to the sluggish Italian economy and international terrorism, but he might just as well have been talking about the appearance of conflicts of interest as the head of the Italian government and its richest citizen.
Much of his wealth comes from the media empire that he built and that relatives and friends now manage. Between that empire and the public broadcasting system that the government oversees, Berlusconi has potential control or influence over six of Italy's seven national TV networks, along with many magazines and newspapers.
Ciampi did not state this in rejecting the media bill, which would have allowed Berlusconi to expand his media holdings in the future.
But Ciampi, whose role is largely ceremonial, does not frequently challenge legislation, which requires his signature to become law. Some Italian political analysts said that his decision to do so in this case might be interpreted by some Italians as a personal rebuke of Berlusconi.
At least publicly, Berlusconi shrugged it off.
"The conflict of interest is an urban legend," Berlusconi said at his recent news conference.
Just a few days later, his government signed an emergency decree to keep one of the national TV channels that Berlusconi owns from being forced away from free TV and onto satellite, a potentially costly change.
The decree was necessary because Ciampi had not signed the media bill.
Berlusconi said he deliberately recused himself from discussions about the decree, which his allies said was an act necessary to save thousands of jobs.
His conflicts of interest existed when Italian voters put him in office in 2001. Those voters paid more heed to his pledges to reinvigorate Italy's economy.
But there have been few signs of such an improvement except for a steady drop in unemployment figures, and there have been scattered signs that Italians are getting impatient, especially as the cost of living in Italy rises.
Over the last several weeks, transportation workers in several cities have staged disruptive wildcat strikes, demanding salary increases to compensate for the rise in prices.
"People are just tired of hearing his optimistic messages every day and then, the next day, there is no real good news," said Francesco Rutelli, a leading center-left member of parliament, speaking of Berlusconi.
In a sign of obvious concern over public restlessness, the prime minister and other government officials have publicly ascribed price increases to Italy's adoption of the euro as its common currency. Berlusconi has said that the euro would be a long-term benefit for Italy, but only after short-term pain.
Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission, dismissed that claim as politically motivated hogwash.
"That's enough with these lies," Prodi recently told reporters. As the Italian prime minister in the late 1990s, Prodi pushed the country toward the euro zone.
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