UK conservative opposition leader Iain Duncan Smith faced a vote of confidence yesterday that few in his party expect him to win, after 25 Tory backbenchers called his bluff and forced a contest.
At least four contenders for the succession looked likely to emerge after a day of drama at Westminster that saw Duncan Smith confirm he would fight on, despite the risk of a humiliating defeat.
Speculation immediately focused on the chances of the opposition finance minister, Michael Howard, should Duncan Smith lose.
PHOTO: EPA
If Howard wins easily when members of parliament (MPs) vote to pick the two finalists, many hope that a deal can be struck to present the 300,000 voting activists across the country with a single name. Instead of another fight, this would provide for a "coronation" in which the party faithful, frustrated by years of defeat, endorse their MPs' judgment.
The chances of this could depend on David Davis, the likely runner-up, doing a quid-pro-quo deal with Howard. Few bets would be risked on that prospect, and Duncan Smith loyalists dismissed it.
After being told on Tuesday morning that he would be challenged, Duncan Smith brushed aside advice from allies to stand down rather than risk humiliation when all 165 Conservative MPs cast their votes yesterday.
"Iain is brave, but he is also stubborn," said one close supporter, who admitted that the vote could go either way. Loyalists insist he will get the 83 votes he needs, critics that he will "be lucky to get 20."
Both sides want the outcome to be decisive either way.
Most likely runners were at their leader's elbow when he addressed TV crews outside party headquarters at 2:30pm, five hours after being told by Sir Michael Spicer, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, that the 25 letters needed to trigger a vote had been received.
So was Duncan Smith's wife, Betsy, whose disputed secretarial role has become part of the rolling crisis. She heard her husband promise to fight on to prevent what he dismissed as a "fractious" and protracted contest which would save Prime Minister Tony Blair's skin for months.
"Yesterday I called on the parliamentary party to end this ludicrous leadership speculation that has been going on for the past few weeks. I said to end it by Wednesday. I can therefore say today that I welcome it and am pleased that we will have an opportunity to do that tomorrow," Duncan Smith said.
Senior opposition cabinet members, including Howard, his most serious rival, Davis, and other possible contenders Theresa May, the Conservative party chairman, and Michael Ancram, Duncan Smith's deputy, all backed a statement urging MPs to vote for Duncan Smith.
Loyalists insist that Duncan Smith has created coherent policies and united the party on Europe, as well as making big local council gains at a time of great Labor support.
A change would be "a grave mistake, that is why I hope he gets his vote of confidence," Howard told the UK's Channel 4 News.
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