Jolted by the swift collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, the hardline clerics who rule Iran have been cracking down on dissent at home and talking discreetly to US diplomats abroad in an effort to stave off American pressure.
With US troops and military bases now virtually surrounding Iran, the conservative leaders have broken an old taboo by talking to their arch-enemy in an attempt to buy some breathing room and pre-empt possible US military action.
Although the two countries have not had diplomatic relations since the US-backed Shah was overthrown in 1979, officials on both sides have acknowledged a series of contacts between Washington and Tehran in recent weeks.
PHOTO: AFP
The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, said over the weekend that a resumption of diplomatic relations was not on the table, but added that the governments were speaking "in light of the changed strategic situation".
The new "situation" has put Iran in a vice. In the past 18 months, the US military machine has toppled two regimes on Iran's borders, Afghanistan and Iraq, with relative ease.
As Washington turns its attention to Iran's nuclear program, the conservative establishment in Tehran is clearly rattled.
After the fall of Baghdad last month, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sounded frustrated that Iraqi troops had failed to put up more resistance against US forces, calling their surrender "an eternal disgrace".
One former member of the establishment, who has become its most prominent critic, dared to say in public what many reformists were saying privately. Ayatollah Hosein Ali Montazeri said the clerical leadership could face the same fate as Saddam if it continued its autocratic ways.
"On this solemn and dangerous occasion, I warn leaders and officials of the Islamic republic to learn from the sad experience of the Iraqi dictator and hear the cry of the Iranian people for justice and democracy," he said.
The hardliners, who have blocked attempts at reform by President Mohammad Khatami and his allies in parliament, have drawn a different lesson from the Iraq conflict. Citing the US threat, they are moving against their political opponents and restricting public debate.
Proposals from President Khatami to end the obstruction of parliament and halt political trials have been stalled and then vetoed.
In recent weeks the judiciary and security services have targeted independent journalists who turned to the internet after their newspapers were shut down, subjecting them to detention without trial and interrogation.
The hardliners have handpicked ultra-conservatives to serve in key positions in the judiciary and in Tehran's city government.
Last week, officials announced plans to restrict access to "unethical"Web sites. There are now fears that the authorities will move against the country's award-winning film industry following the detention of several film critics and screen writers.
Earlier this month, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in the militant Revolutionary Guard put MPs on notice that their comments would be "monitored" to safeguard national security, a clear message aimed at intimidating reformists, who form a majority in parliament.
In the past, reformist MPs have threatened to resign if the hardliners in the Guardian Council and the judiciary continue to veto legislation and punish dissidents. But they now run the risk of being accused of imperilling national security and playing into the hands of the "enemy" next door in Iraq.
While piling pressure on their domestic critics, the most conservative elements in the leadership have been calling on Shiites in Iraq to resist the US-led occupation.
Ahmad Jannati, a leading cleric, told worshippers at Friday prayers this month: "Iraqis will eventually reach the conclusion that the only way to oust Americans is an intifada. The Iraqi people should remain united and follow their religious leaders to oust the enemy and lead their own country."
In the battle for the sympathies of Iraqis, Iran's most effective move has been the launch of an Arabic news channel, which is beamed over the border. Al-Alam, or the World, has won a large Iraqi audience with its portrayal of US and British troops as occupiers who are not to be trusted.
By promoting militant Shiite politics in Iraq, the hardliners hope to make life difficult for the Americans and force them to withdraw.
But the extent of Iran's influence in Iraq remains unclear.
Tehran has pinned its hopes on a group of Shiite exiles it has sponsored for the past 20 years, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, but not all Shiite clergy in Iraq favor an Iranian-style theocracy.
If Iraq moves eventually towards a pluralistic system, hardliners fear it could become a platform for the Iranian opposition and critical media banned inside Iran.
However, the most serious threat in a post-Saddam world may come from Iraq's dormant oil fields, which are already attracting the interest of foreign oil companies.
Kehinde Sanni spends his days smoothing out dents and repainting scratched bumpers in a modest autobody shop in Lagos. He has never left Nigeria, yet he speaks glowingly of Burkina Faso military leader Ibrahim Traore. “Nigeria needs someone like Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso. He is doing well for his country,” Sanni said. His admiration is shaped by a steady stream of viral videos, memes and social media posts — many misleading or outright false — portraying Traore as a fearless reformer who defied Western powers and reclaimed his country’s dignity. The Burkinabe strongman swept into power following a coup in September 2022
‘FRAGMENTING’: British politics have for a long time been dominated by the Labor Party and the Tories, but polls suggest that Reform now poses a significant challenge Hard-right upstarts Reform UK snatched a parliamentary seat from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labor Party yesterday in local elections that dealt a blow to the UK’s two establishment parties. Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage, won the by-election in Runcorn and Helsby in northwest England by just six votes, as it picked up gains in other localities, including one mayoralty. The group’s strong showing continues momentum it built up at last year’s general election and appears to confirm a trend that the UK is entering an era of multi-party politics. “For the movement, for the party it’s a very, very big
ENTERTAINMENT: Rio officials have a history of organizing massive concerts on Copacabana Beach, with Madonna’s show drawing about 1.6 million fans last year Lady Gaga on Saturday night gave a free concert in front of 2 million fans who poured onto Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro for the biggest show of her career. “Tonight, we’re making history... Thank you for making history with me,” Lady Gaga told a screaming crowd. The Mother Monster, as she is known, started the show at about 10:10pm local time with her 2011 song Bloody Mary. Cries of joy rose from the tightly packed fans who sang and danced shoulder-to-shoulder on the vast stretch of sand. Concert organizers said 2.1 million people attended the show. Lady Gaga
SUPPORT: The Australian prime minister promised to back Kyiv against Russia’s invasion, saying: ‘That’s my government’s position. It was yesterday. It still is’ Left-leaning Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese yesterday basked in his landslide election win, promising a “disciplined, orderly” government to confront cost-of-living pain and tariff turmoil. People clapped as the 62-year-old and his fiancee, Jodie Haydon, who visited his old inner Sydney haunt, Cafe Italia, surrounded by a crowd of jostling photographers and journalists. Albanese’s Labor Party is on course to win at least 83 seats in the 150-member parliament, partial results showed. Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s conservative Liberal-National coalition had just 38 seats, and other parties 12. Another 17 seats were still in doubt. “We will be a disciplined, orderly
RSS