Jolted by the swift collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, the hardline clerics who rule Iran have been cracking down on dissent at home and talking discreetly to US diplomats abroad in an effort to stave off American pressure.
With US troops and military bases now virtually surrounding Iran, the conservative leaders have broken an old taboo by talking to their arch-enemy in an attempt to buy some breathing room and pre-empt possible US military action.
Although the two countries have not had diplomatic relations since the US-backed Shah was overthrown in 1979, officials on both sides have acknowledged a series of contacts between Washington and Tehran in recent weeks.
PHOTO: AFP
The US secretary of state, Colin Powell, said over the weekend that a resumption of diplomatic relations was not on the table, but added that the governments were speaking "in light of the changed strategic situation".
The new "situation" has put Iran in a vice. In the past 18 months, the US military machine has toppled two regimes on Iran's borders, Afghanistan and Iraq, with relative ease.
As Washington turns its attention to Iran's nuclear program, the conservative establishment in Tehran is clearly rattled.
After the fall of Baghdad last month, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sounded frustrated that Iraqi troops had failed to put up more resistance against US forces, calling their surrender "an eternal disgrace".
One former member of the establishment, who has become its most prominent critic, dared to say in public what many reformists were saying privately. Ayatollah Hosein Ali Montazeri said the clerical leadership could face the same fate as Saddam if it continued its autocratic ways.
"On this solemn and dangerous occasion, I warn leaders and officials of the Islamic republic to learn from the sad experience of the Iraqi dictator and hear the cry of the Iranian people for justice and democracy," he said.
The hardliners, who have blocked attempts at reform by President Mohammad Khatami and his allies in parliament, have drawn a different lesson from the Iraq conflict. Citing the US threat, they are moving against their political opponents and restricting public debate.
Proposals from President Khatami to end the obstruction of parliament and halt political trials have been stalled and then vetoed.
In recent weeks the judiciary and security services have targeted independent journalists who turned to the internet after their newspapers were shut down, subjecting them to detention without trial and interrogation.
The hardliners have handpicked ultra-conservatives to serve in key positions in the judiciary and in Tehran's city government.
Last week, officials announced plans to restrict access to "unethical"Web sites. There are now fears that the authorities will move against the country's award-winning film industry following the detention of several film critics and screen writers.
Earlier this month, Ayatollah Khamenei's representative in the militant Revolutionary Guard put MPs on notice that their comments would be "monitored" to safeguard national security, a clear message aimed at intimidating reformists, who form a majority in parliament.
In the past, reformist MPs have threatened to resign if the hardliners in the Guardian Council and the judiciary continue to veto legislation and punish dissidents. But they now run the risk of being accused of imperilling national security and playing into the hands of the "enemy" next door in Iraq.
While piling pressure on their domestic critics, the most conservative elements in the leadership have been calling on Shiites in Iraq to resist the US-led occupation.
Ahmad Jannati, a leading cleric, told worshippers at Friday prayers this month: "Iraqis will eventually reach the conclusion that the only way to oust Americans is an intifada. The Iraqi people should remain united and follow their religious leaders to oust the enemy and lead their own country."
In the battle for the sympathies of Iraqis, Iran's most effective move has been the launch of an Arabic news channel, which is beamed over the border. Al-Alam, or the World, has won a large Iraqi audience with its portrayal of US and British troops as occupiers who are not to be trusted.
By promoting militant Shiite politics in Iraq, the hardliners hope to make life difficult for the Americans and force them to withdraw.
But the extent of Iran's influence in Iraq remains unclear.
Tehran has pinned its hopes on a group of Shiite exiles it has sponsored for the past 20 years, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, but not all Shiite clergy in Iraq favor an Iranian-style theocracy.
If Iraq moves eventually towards a pluralistic system, hardliners fear it could become a platform for the Iranian opposition and critical media banned inside Iran.
However, the most serious threat in a post-Saddam world may come from Iraq's dormant oil fields, which are already attracting the interest of foreign oil companies.
POLITICAL PRISONERS VS DEPORTEES: Venezuela’s prosecutor’s office slammed the call by El Salvador’s leader, accusing him of crimes against humanity Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele on Sunday proposed carrying out a prisoner swap with Venezuela, suggesting he would exchange Venezuelan deportees from the US his government has kept imprisoned for what he called “political prisoners” in Venezuela. In a post on X, directed at Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Bukele listed off a number of family members of high-level opposition figures in Venezuela, journalists and activists detained during the South American government’s electoral crackdown last year. “The only reason they are imprisoned is for having opposed you and your electoral fraud,” he wrote to Maduro. “However, I want to propose a humanitarian agreement that
ECONOMIC WORRIES: The ruling PAP faces voters amid concerns that the city-state faces the possibility of a recession and job losses amid Washington’s tariffs Singapore yesterday finalized contestants for its general election on Saturday next week, with the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) fielding 32 new candidates in the biggest refresh of the party that has ruled the city-state since independence in 1965. The move follows a pledge by Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong (黃循財), who took office last year and assumed the PAP leadership, to “bring in new blood, new ideas and new energy” to steer the country of 6 million people. His latest shake-up beats that of predecessors Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) and Goh Chok Tong (吳作棟), who replaced 24 and 11 politicians respectively
Young women standing idly around a park in Tokyo’s west suggest that a giant statue of Godzilla is not the only attraction for a record number of foreign tourists. Their faces lit by the cold glow of their phones, the women lining Okubo Park are evidence that sex tourism has developed as a dark flipside to the bustling Kabukicho nightlife district. Increasing numbers of foreign men are flocking to the area after seeing videos on social media. One of the women said that the area near Kabukicho, where Godzilla rumbles and belches smoke atop a cinema, has become a “real
‘WATER WARFARE’: A Pakistani official called India’s suspension of a 65-year-old treaty on the sharing of waters from the Indus River ‘a cowardly, illegal move’ Pakistan yesterday canceled visas for Indian nationals, closed its airspace for all Indian-owned or operated airlines, and suspended all trade with India, including to and from any third country. The retaliatory measures follow India’s decision to suspend visas for Pakistani nationals in the aftermath of a deadly attack by shooters in Kashmir that killed 26 people, mostly tourists. The rare attack on civilians shocked and outraged India and prompted calls for action against their country’s archenemy, Pakistan. New Delhi did not publicly produce evidence connecting the attack to its neighbor, but said it had “cross-border” links to Pakistan. Pakistan denied any connection to
RSS