A sharp rise in compensation to be paid by air force officers who leave before completing their required service could indicate an increase in pilots leaving the military early, an analyst said on Friday, warning that the trend could worsen a shortage of experienced personnel.
Chieh Chung (揭仲), a researcher at the Association for Strategic Foresight, issued the warning even though the number of volunteer military personnel is expected to increase next year.
The planned headcount for volunteer military personnel, covering officers, noncommissioned officers (NCO) and enlisted soldiers, is 158,223 for next year, up 4,258 from 153,965 this year, Chieh said.
Photo: Peter Lo, Taipei Times
The increase includes 2,044 volunteer soldiers in a planned headcount of 30,480 next year, he said.
It would mark the first increase in the number of volunteer service members since 2024, which Chieh attributed to increases in duty and combat allowances that took effect in April last year, as well as a reduction in nonessential duties.
However, air force staffing appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with headquarters revenue from compensation paid by officers who left before completing their required service more than doubling from last year, he said.
The air force’s expected compensation revenue for officers and NCOs leaving before completing required service is NT$50.59 million (US$1.6 million) next year, about 2.5 times the NT$20.26 million last year, he said.
Because air force pilots face substantially higher compensation obligations than other personnel when they leave before completing their required service, Chieh said the rise might indicate a rise in premature departures among pilots.
At the same time, incentive payments earmarked for pilots across the armed forces who remain in service beyond their minimum required period have declined for four consecutive years, falling from NT$838.28 million in 2023 to NT$755.78 million for next year, a decrease of about 10 percent.
The incentives are intended to retain majors, lieutenant colonels and colonels who have completed their minimum required service period, Chieh said, adding that the decline suggests that the departure of senior pilots in key leadership roles has not slowed.
Air force pilots who leave the military early might do so to become commercial airline pilots, Chieh added.
“That could lead to an imbalance in the ratio between senior and junior pilots,” Chieh said, adding that it could create a gap in the air force’s combat capabilities, even if the required number of pilots is eventually met.
The issue is particularly concerning given the air force’s plan to add 107 pilot officers to a newly established fighter wing that will operate the 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan has committed to purchasing from the US, he said.
The first two F-16 Block 70s purchased by Taiwan are expected to be delivered to the air force in the next few days.
Asked what could have contributed to the high turnover among air force pilots, Chieh said that the increased number of sorties and military drills resulting from China’s stepped-up “gray zone” activities around Taiwan was likely a major factor.
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