It is normal to use timelines as a reference for defense strategy, a Taiwanese defense expert said on Saturday last week, after the Ministry of National Defense said that its Han Kuang exercises this year would focus on China’s “gray zone” tactics and the possibility of a Chinese invasion in 2027.
Former US Navy admiral Philip Davidson once said China would attempt a Taiwan invasion by 2027.
China at the time denied the claim, saying it was “the US searching for a pretext to increase its military spending.”
Photo: AFP photo, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense
Nevertheless countries have frequently referred to 2027 as the deadline when discussing military budgets and strategy.
Institute for National Defense and Security Research research fellow Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said it was normal to use timelines as a reference for defense strategy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has told the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “be prepared for invasion” by 2027, but there has been no sign that a formal decision has been made to resort to force by then, he said.
On Feb. 2, 2023, then-CIA director William Burns said Xi’s order to the PLA should be taken as a “reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition.”
Former US Indo-Pacific commander John Aquilino also reiterated last year that since a 2027 timetable has been set by Xi, the US military must be ready to respond to contingencies before that time.
Japanese security expert Takashi Kawakami and former Australian Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo have also warned their governments to speed up preparations for contingencies.
On Tuesday last week, US Air Force Strategic Commander General Anthony Cotton said China is accelerating its military expansion, especially in terms of dual-use shipyards and nuclear weapons launch platforms.
Those efforts were clearly a part of plans to have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027, he said, adding that the US should accelerate the production of military weapons.
On Thursday last week, Davidson said that regardless of whether China attempts an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, it would continue with actions that aim to weaken and replace the US’ influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Su said that think tanks have given different deadlines for an invasion — including 2035 and 2049 — as those years are anniversaries for PLA milestones.
Xi might seek a fourth term in office and take military risks to justify it; coupled with China’s ambitions to become a sea power, it would form a “perfect storm,” he said, adding the Han Kuang exercises’ focus is understandably based on that assumption.
The ministry’s “immediate response drills” that concluded last week followed the principle of risk control, which were aimed at deterring China from “turning exercises into war,” he said.
Additional reporting by CNA
A magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Yilan County at 8:39pm tonight, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, with no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The epicenter was 38.7km east-northeast of Yilan County Hall at a focal depth of 98.3km, the CWA’s Seismological Center said. The quake’s maximum intensity, which gauges the actual physical effect of a seismic event, was a level 4 on Taiwan’s 7-tier intensity scale, the center said. That intensity level was recorded in Yilan County’s Nanao Township (南澳), Hsinchu County’s Guansi Township (關西), Nantou County’s Hehuanshan (合歡山) and Hualien County’s Yanliao (鹽寮). An intensity of 3 was
Instead of focusing solely on the threat of a full-scale military invasion, the US and its allies must prepare for a potential Chinese “quarantine” of Taiwan enforced through customs inspections, Stanford University Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann said in a Foreign Affairs article published on Wednesday. China could use various “gray zone” tactics in “reconfiguring the regional and ultimately the global economic order without a war,” said Freymann, who is also a nonresident research fellow at the US Naval War College. China might seize control of Taiwan’s links to the outside world by requiring all flights and ships entering or leaving Taiwan
The next minimum wage hike is expected to exceed NT$30,000, President William Lai (賴清德) said yesterday during an award ceremony honoring “model workers,” including migrant workers, at the Presidential Office ahead of Workers’ Day today. Lai said he wished to thank the awardees on behalf of the nation and extend his most sincere respect for their hard work, on which Taiwan’s prosperity has been built. Lai specifically thanked 10 migrant workers selected for the award, saying that although they left their home countries to further their own goals, their efforts have benefited Taiwan as well. The nation’s industrial sector and small businesses lay
Quarantine awareness posters at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport have gone viral for their use of wordplay. Issued by the airport branch of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Agency, the posters feature sniffer dogs making a range of facial expressions, paired with advisory messages built around homophones. “We update the messages for holidays and campaign needs, periodically refreshing materials to attract people’s attention,” quarantine officials said. “The aim is to use the dogs’ appeal to draw focus to quarantine regulations.” A Japanese traveler visiting Taiwan has posted a photo on X of a poster showing a quarantine dog with a
RSS