It is normal to use timelines as a reference for defense strategy, a Taiwanese defense expert said on Saturday last week, after the Ministry of National Defense said that its Han Kuang exercises this year would focus on China’s “gray zone” tactics and the possibility of a Chinese invasion in 2027.
Former US Navy admiral Philip Davidson once said China would attempt a Taiwan invasion by 2027.
China at the time denied the claim, saying it was “the US searching for a pretext to increase its military spending.”
Photo: AFP photo, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense
Nevertheless countries have frequently referred to 2027 as the deadline when discussing military budgets and strategy.
Institute for National Defense and Security Research research fellow Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said it was normal to use timelines as a reference for defense strategy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has told the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “be prepared for invasion” by 2027, but there has been no sign that a formal decision has been made to resort to force by then, he said.
On Feb. 2, 2023, then-CIA director William Burns said Xi’s order to the PLA should be taken as a “reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition.”
Former US Indo-Pacific commander John Aquilino also reiterated last year that since a 2027 timetable has been set by Xi, the US military must be ready to respond to contingencies before that time.
Japanese security expert Takashi Kawakami and former Australian Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo have also warned their governments to speed up preparations for contingencies.
On Tuesday last week, US Air Force Strategic Commander General Anthony Cotton said China is accelerating its military expansion, especially in terms of dual-use shipyards and nuclear weapons launch platforms.
Those efforts were clearly a part of plans to have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027, he said, adding that the US should accelerate the production of military weapons.
On Thursday last week, Davidson said that regardless of whether China attempts an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, it would continue with actions that aim to weaken and replace the US’ influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Su said that think tanks have given different deadlines for an invasion — including 2035 and 2049 — as those years are anniversaries for PLA milestones.
Xi might seek a fourth term in office and take military risks to justify it; coupled with China’s ambitions to become a sea power, it would form a “perfect storm,” he said, adding the Han Kuang exercises’ focus is understandably based on that assumption.
The ministry’s “immediate response drills” that concluded last week followed the principle of risk control, which were aimed at deterring China from “turning exercises into war,” he said.
Additional reporting by CNA
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