The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly modernizing, but has yet to attain the joint warfare capability necessary to conquer Taiwan, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said in its latest quarterly report on China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has pursued comprehensive military reforms to modernize the PLA’s muti-domain and joint warfare capabilities, the MAC said, citing the US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report.
That includes enhancing the cooperation between land, sea and air forces, and nuclear, space, electronic and cyberwarfare, it said.
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The PLA has achieved tangible progress, but significant shortcomings remain in its ability to conduct command and control, long-range logistics, urban warfare and joint operations beyond the first island chain, the MAC cited the US military as saying.
China operates the world’s largest naval fleet, consisting of 370 ships and submarines, including 140 principal surface warfare combatants and 1,300 fourth-generation fighters, more than any other in the Indo-Pacific region, the MAC said.
Despite the PLA’s considerable advantage, its ability to conduct joint warfare beyond the confines of the first island chain is diminished by unsolved organizational and institutional issues, it said.
The PLA has not created a unified network command and control system that would allow ground, aviation and naval forces to share intelligence, distribute firepower and coordinate maneuvers in joint operations, the MAC said.
Although Xi’s anti-corruption campaigns could delay the PLA’s 2027 modernization goals, combat readiness and proficiency have steadily improved, the MAC cited the Pentagon as saying.
Chinese military drills show a focus on responding to crises in the Taiwan Strait, honing the skillsets necessary for invading Taiwan and preventing an intervention by a third party, it said.
The US believes there is no imminent threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as Beijing cannot yet win a short and decisive campaign while keeping losses at an acceptable level, the MAC said, citing former US assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs Ely Ratner as saying.
It is unclear whether China has come closer to obtaining the capabilities to achieve the victory conditions it set for a war on Taiwan, it said.
Beijing’s main concern is an intervention from US forces outside the second island chain, so it has increased its arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles by 12.3 percent and medium-range ballistic missiles by 30 percent, the MAC said.
Meanwhile, China’s short-range ballistic missiles stocks, which cover the Taiwan Strait and area around the region, have decreased by 10 percent, suggesting that attrition from exercises have taken a toll, it said.
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