China is likely to launch military drills this week near Taiwan, using President William Lai’s (賴清德) upcoming national day speech as a pretext to pressure the nation to accept its sovereignty claims, Taiwanese officials said.
China in May launched “punishment” drills around Taiwan shortly after Lai’s inauguration, in what Beijing said was a response to “separatist acts,” sending heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks as state media denounced newly inaugurated Lai.
The May drills were dubbed “Joint Sword — 2024A” and drew concerns from capitals, including Washington.
Photo: AFP
Lai is to deliver a key speech on Thursday in front of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China.
“Our assessment is that no matter what Lai says on October 10, they might put a name on existing exercises and call it Joint Sword — 2024B. That’s a possibility,” a senior Taiwanese security official said, citing intelligence gathered by Taiwan and the government’s assessments on China’s likely moves.
“It’s likely to be a pretext,” the official said.
In an internal security memo, a copy of which was viewed by Reuters, Taiwanese authorities said they believe Beijing might blame the possible drills on Lai’s “provocation” in his speech.
China has “continuously tried to test the red lines of various countries, maximizing its gray-zone operations,” the memo said, referring to military moves that stop short of actual combat to test and pressure other militaries.
The Ministry of National Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
China’s Ministry of National Defense and Taiwan Affairs Office also did not immediately respond to requests for comment
A Taipei-based diplomatic source said the one thing that could hold back a military reaction by China to Lai’s speech was the closeness of the US presidential election and Beijing not wanting tensions over Taiwan to suddenly be put into the international spotlight so close to the vote.
“These days China does not really need a pretext to hold war games around Taiwan. They can do them anytime they like,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation.
Lai and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwanese can decide their future.
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