China might intensify “gray zone” activities to achieve a “political and strategic breakthrough” in the Indo-Pacific region as the US and Japan hold key elections, a national security official said.
The US presidential election is scheduled for November and Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election — likely to decide the country’s next prime minister — is scheduled for Sept. 27.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said the distraction caused by the elections would embolden Beijing to initiate fresh coercive measures against Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines.
Photo: Reuters
China is focused on using legal and cognitive warfare to maximize the pressure it can create without triggering a military conflict, a strategy Beijing is unlikely to deviate from, they said.
Beijing’s provocative actions near its neighbors are part of a long-standing strategy to penetrate the first island chain, the official said, referring to the string of archipelagos from northeast Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia.
Strategic competition between the US and China has escalated into a global contest between rivaling alliances, a situation that would not be affected by changes to Washington’s or Toyko’s leadership, they said.
Western economic sanctions and technology restrictions are having an effect even as the Chinese government struggles to contain a deepening economic crisis, the official said.
To regain the initiative, Beijing must make up the economic and technological losses by advancing on other fronts, such as improving its diplomatic and geopolitical posture, they said.
That requires a two-faced strategy of playing a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, while stepping up its harassment of neighboring countries in increasingly aggressive shows of force, they said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has a political incentive to dispel the perception of China’s diminished power by taking on an assertive foreign policy stance, the official added.
The renewed aggressive posture includes military activities around Taiwan, which have become more frequent, larger in scope, and involve an ever-increasing number and types of platforms, they said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s display of its capability to reach beyond the first island chain reflects Beijing’s strategic aims to compete with the West, they said.
It was not a coincidence that White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to Beijing last month was followed by an intrusion into Japanese airspace and seas by Chinese craft, they said.
The aggressive behavior was consistent with China’s actions near Taiwan and the Philippines, and spoke to the nature of Sullivan’s visit, which was not a routine diplomatic house call, but a de-risking mission, the official said.
Sullivan likely gave Beijing a clear understanding of Washington’s bottom line, they said.
The US official met Xi, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) and Zhang Youxia (張又俠), vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, but did not meet with Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun (董軍), they said.
Xi’s interactions with the Chinese military have been rife with tension, the official said, adding that “anti-corruption” purges made him fear disloyalty more than it damaged the morale of the armed forces.
The Chinese leader’s authority is “slowly, but surely eroding,” he said.
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