The balloons that China has been floating over Taiwan are an attempt to determine the positioning of air defense units by luring them into opening fire, an academic said in a cross-strait situation brief published by the Mainland Affairs Council.
Balloons have limited ability to contribute to military operations, but are suited to “gray zone” tactics, said Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor of international affairs and strategic studies at Tamkang University.
Although they lack offensive capabilities and cannot be steered, they are a symbol of Chinese state control and apply political pressure without being excessively provocative, Lin said.
Photo courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense
Taiwan’s armed forces have not shot down any of the balloons, despite having the capability, likely due to cost concerns, as air defense missiles are expensive, he said.
Beijing’s use of balloons in the winter — apparently to harness seasonal winds — serves a dual purpose of scientific research and intelligence gathering, he said.
Should Taiwanese units be provoked into firing at the balloons, Beijing would be able to glean valuable information about the position and operating procedures of launch sites to use in plans for a hypothetical invasion, Lin said.
Moreover, floating balloons over Taiwan proper is a symbolic display of China’s ability to exert air control that discredits the government in Taipei as being unable to mount an effective defense of its sovereign airspace, he said.
The use of balloons is concurrent with new developments in Chinese cognitive warfare techniques, which increasingly make use of propaganda videos that emphasize China’s military power while downplaying Taiwan’s, he said.
Taipei’s apparent inability to deal with the balloons was featured prominently in these videos, he added.
The use of balloons in Beijing’s harassment of Taiwanese airspace is mainly conducted for its political effect and not to gain a military advantage, Lin said.
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