The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) would likely clash over poll selection as they attempt to negotiate a joint presidential ticket in the coming days, an expert said on Wednesday.
The KMT and the TPP earlier that day announced that a panel of three experts — one each from the KMT and the TPP and one selected by former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) — would assess public polls from Tuesday last week until yesterday.
For each poll where TPP nominee Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) favorability exceeds KMT candidate and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) by a margin beyond the margin of error, Ko would be given one point. However, if the difference falls within the margin of error, Hou would receive the point, the parties said.
Photo: Chang Chia-ming, Taipei Times
National Chengchi University Election Study Center research fellow Hsiao Yi-ching (蕭怡靖), said a lack of details on polling methodology had left him skeptical.
Which polls should be included in the analysis appears unclear in the joint statement, Hsiao said.
“What happens if a poll indicates that a Hou-Ko ticket is favored, but the Ko camp believes it should not be taken into account?” Hsiao said.
Hsiao said that fairness, objectivity and representativeness, as well as sampling and questionnaire design were more significant than sampling errors.
Meanwhile, Gallup analyst Wu Li-yen (吳立嫣) also highlighted the importance of questionnaire design to ensure consistency across polls.
The questionnaire should focus on a Hou-Ko or a Ko-Hou ticket in comparison to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee Vice President William Lai (賴清德) and his likely running mate, Representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), Wu added.
The favorability for a Hou-Ko or a Ko-Hou ticket is “close,” and the difference between the two falls within a margin of error of 1 to 2 percentage points, Wu said.
Lin Kuan-yu (林寬裕), head of the KMT’s Culture and Communications Committee, said the polling experts would collaboratively identify credible polls and exclude those deemed unreliable, ultimately determining the joint ticket.
Specifics, including considerations such as the ratio of mobile phone calls to landline phone calls and whether to include a comparison with independent candidate and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), would be determined by the polling experts, Lin added.
An essay competition jointly organized by a local writing society and a publisher affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might have contravened the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (臺灣地區與大陸地區人民關係條例), the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said on Thursday. “In this case, the partner organization is clearly an agency under the CCP’s Fujian Provincial Committee,” MAC Deputy Minister and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) said at a news briefing in Taipei. “It also involves bringing Taiwanese students to China with all-expenses-paid arrangements to attend award ceremonies and camps,” Liang said. Those two “characteristics” are typically sufficient
A magnitude 5.9 earthquake that struck about 33km off the coast of Hualien City was the "main shock" in a series of quakes in the area, with aftershocks expected over the next three days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Prior to the magnitude 5.9 quake shaking most of Taiwan at 6:53pm yesterday, six other earthquakes stronger than a magnitude of 4, starting with a magnitude 5.5 quake at 6:09pm, occurred in the area. CWA Seismological Center Director Wu Chien-fu (吳健富) confirmed that the quakes were all part of the same series and that the magnitude 5.5 temblor was
The brilliant blue waters, thick foliage and bucolic atmosphere on this seemingly idyllic archipelago deep in the Pacific Ocean belie the key role it now plays in a titanic geopolitical struggle. Palau is again on the front line as China, and the US and its allies prepare their forces in an intensifying contest for control over the Asia-Pacific region. The democratic nation of just 17,000 people hosts US-controlled airstrips and soon-to-be-completed radar installations that the US military describes as “critical” to monitoring vast swathes of water and airspace. It is also a key piece of the second island chain, a string of
The Central Weather Administration has issued a heat alert for southeastern Taiwan, warning of temperatures as high as 36°C today, while alerting some coastal areas of strong winds later in the day. Kaohsiung’s Neimen District (內門) and Pingtung County’s Neipu Township (內埔) are under an orange heat alert, which warns of temperatures as high as 36°C for three consecutive days, the CWA said, citing southwest winds. The heat would also extend to Tainan’s Nansi (楠西) and Yujing (玉井) districts, as well as Pingtung’s Gaoshu (高樹), Yanpu (鹽埔) and Majia (瑪家) townships, it said, forecasting highs of up to 36°C in those areas