The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) would likely clash over poll selection as they attempt to negotiate a joint presidential ticket in the coming days, an expert said on Wednesday.
The KMT and the TPP earlier that day announced that a panel of three experts — one each from the KMT and the TPP and one selected by former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) — would assess public polls from Tuesday last week until yesterday.
For each poll where TPP nominee Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) favorability exceeds KMT candidate and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) by a margin beyond the margin of error, Ko would be given one point. However, if the difference falls within the margin of error, Hou would receive the point, the parties said.
Photo: Chang Chia-ming, Taipei Times
National Chengchi University Election Study Center research fellow Hsiao Yi-ching (蕭怡靖), said a lack of details on polling methodology had left him skeptical.
Which polls should be included in the analysis appears unclear in the joint statement, Hsiao said.
“What happens if a poll indicates that a Hou-Ko ticket is favored, but the Ko camp believes it should not be taken into account?” Hsiao said.
Hsiao said that fairness, objectivity and representativeness, as well as sampling and questionnaire design were more significant than sampling errors.
Meanwhile, Gallup analyst Wu Li-yen (吳立嫣) also highlighted the importance of questionnaire design to ensure consistency across polls.
The questionnaire should focus on a Hou-Ko or a Ko-Hou ticket in comparison to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee Vice President William Lai (賴清德) and his likely running mate, Representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), Wu added.
The favorability for a Hou-Ko or a Ko-Hou ticket is “close,” and the difference between the two falls within a margin of error of 1 to 2 percentage points, Wu said.
Lin Kuan-yu (林寬裕), head of the KMT’s Culture and Communications Committee, said the polling experts would collaboratively identify credible polls and exclude those deemed unreliable, ultimately determining the joint ticket.
Specifics, including considerations such as the ratio of mobile phone calls to landline phone calls and whether to include a comparison with independent candidate and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), would be determined by the polling experts, Lin added.
ANOTHER EMERGES: The CWA yesterday said this year’s fourth storm of the typhoon season had formed in the South China Sea, but was not expected to affect Taiwan Tropical Storm Gaemi has intensified slightly as it heads toward Taiwan, where it is expected to affect the country in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 8am yesterday, the 120km-radius storm was 800km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost tip, moving at 9kph northwest, the agency said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued tonight at the earliest, it said, adding that the storm is projected to be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday. Gaemi’s potential effect on Taiwan remains unclear, as that would depend on its direction, radius and intensity, forecasters said. Former Weather Forecast
As COVID-19 cases in Japan have been increasing for 10 consecutive weeks, people should get vaccinated before visiting the nation, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said. The centers reported 773 hospitalizations and 124 deaths related to COVID-19 in Taiwan last week. CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Guo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) on Tuesday said the number of weekly COVID-19 cases reported in Japan has been increasing since mid-May and surpassed 55,000 cases from July 8 to July 14. The average number of COVID-19 patients at Japan’s healthcare facilities that week was also 1.39 times that of the week before and KP.3 is the dominant
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) working group for Taiwan-related policies is likely to be upgraded to a committee-level body, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said. As Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is increasingly likely to upgrade the CCP’s Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, Taiwanese authorities should prepare by researching Xi and the CCP, the report said. At the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, which ended on Thursday last week, the party set a target of 2029 for the completion of some tasks, meaning that Xi is likely preparing to
US-CHINA TRADE DISPUTE: Despite Beijing’s offer of preferential treatment, the lure of China has dimmed as Taiwanese and international investors move out Japan and the US have become the favored destinations for Taiwanese graduates as China’s attraction has waned over the years, the Ministry of Labor said. According to the ministry’s latest income and employment advisory published this month, 3,215 Taiwanese university graduates from the class of 2020 went to Japan, surpassing for the first time the 2,881 graduates who went to China. A total of 2,300 graduates from the class of 2021 went to the US, compared with the 2,262 who went to China, the document showed. The trend continued for the class of 2023, of whom 1,460 went to Japan, 1,334 went to