The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) would likely clash over poll selection as they attempt to negotiate a joint presidential ticket in the coming days, an expert said on Wednesday.
The KMT and the TPP earlier that day announced that a panel of three experts — one each from the KMT and the TPP and one selected by former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) — would assess public polls from Tuesday last week until yesterday.
For each poll where TPP nominee Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) favorability exceeds KMT candidate and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) by a margin beyond the margin of error, Ko would be given one point. However, if the difference falls within the margin of error, Hou would receive the point, the parties said.
Photo: Chang Chia-ming, Taipei Times
National Chengchi University Election Study Center research fellow Hsiao Yi-ching (蕭怡靖), said a lack of details on polling methodology had left him skeptical.
Which polls should be included in the analysis appears unclear in the joint statement, Hsiao said.
“What happens if a poll indicates that a Hou-Ko ticket is favored, but the Ko camp believes it should not be taken into account?” Hsiao said.
Hsiao said that fairness, objectivity and representativeness, as well as sampling and questionnaire design were more significant than sampling errors.
Meanwhile, Gallup analyst Wu Li-yen (吳立嫣) also highlighted the importance of questionnaire design to ensure consistency across polls.
The questionnaire should focus on a Hou-Ko or a Ko-Hou ticket in comparison to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee Vice President William Lai (賴清德) and his likely running mate, Representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), Wu added.
The favorability for a Hou-Ko or a Ko-Hou ticket is “close,” and the difference between the two falls within a margin of error of 1 to 2 percentage points, Wu said.
Lin Kuan-yu (林寬裕), head of the KMT’s Culture and Communications Committee, said the polling experts would collaboratively identify credible polls and exclude those deemed unreliable, ultimately determining the joint ticket.
Specifics, including considerations such as the ratio of mobile phone calls to landline phone calls and whether to include a comparison with independent candidate and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), would be determined by the polling experts, Lin added.
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