Japan and the US must lead an alliance of like-minded nations to prepare for the defense of Taiwan to deter China from launching an invasion, former Japanese minister of defense Itsunori Onodera said.
Onodera, a member of the Japanese House of Representatives, made the remark during an interview published Toyo Keizai’s Web site on Monday.
Japan is one of the nations that would be most affected by the outbreak of a “Taiwan contingency,” and Tokyo should take steps to ensure that it never comes to pass, he said.
Photo: Reuters
The best deterrence for Japan against a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is to prepare to respond to such an event at any moment, he said.
Nations with shared values must create an alliance to support Taiwan, with each member providing assistance in a manner congruent with its interests, he said.
Tokyo must clearly signal to China that any attempt to “unify” Taiwan by force is unacceptable to the international community, Onodera said.
Japan has done much to deter Beijing’s aggression, including through its participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, India and the US, and diplomatic outreach to NATO members, many of which already have a presence in Asia, which offers significant deterrence value, he said.
Although NATO expansion into Asia is unlikely, as it is a military alliance among North American and European countries, Japan could cement stronger ties with its members, he said.
Tokyo’s decision not to partner with the US in developing its next-generation fighter aircraft is an effort to bolster ties with Italy and the UK, Onodera said, adding that Japan’s importance to NATO would be boosted if the jet is adopted by its members.
An invasion of Taiwan is highly likely to trigger open conflict between the US and China, as Washington has an “unshakable” commitment to Taiwan, he said.
In a war in the Taiwan Strait, the US could fight alongside Taiwanese armed forces against the Chinese People’s Liberation Army or provide materiel to the defenders as it is doing in Ukraine, he said.
However, the latter option is unlikely, as China would not invade Taiwan before achieving naval and air superiority, which would make it difficult to supply the nation without engaging Chinese armed forces, he said.
Should the US Navy prove unable to approach Taiwan in such a scenario, US military bases in Japan, the Philippines and Guam would likely serve as the main staging areas for US forces in a conflict with China, Onodera said.
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