The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) is planning to begin issuing rogue wave alerts in northern Taiwan by the summer of next year, but the tools are still being developed and the scope of the project could be limited.
The CWB has estimated that, from 2000 to last year, 701 people in Taiwan were swept out to sea in 408 rogue wave incidents — mostly along the north coast — and the development of rogue wave alerts would be aimed at reducing the loss of life.
Since 2016, 12 observation stations using cameras have been set up along the coast and another nine are planned in part to detect and monitor unexpected waves that engulf coastal areas, said Tung Chun-ci (滕春慈), the director of the CWB’s Marine Meterology Center.
Photo: Chang Chung-i, Taipei Times
The planned rogue wave alert system is to be far more ambitious, though.
The CWB is eyeing an alert system that would use a color code to warn people of rogue waves’ existence and potential threats before they reach the shore, the bureau said in a statement.
That would not be easy, because the causes of rogue waves remain unclear, leaving scientists having to speculate on the timing based on experience, the CWB said.
Tung said that the tools required for such an alert system, such as the software needed to integrate camera observations and statistical forecast data run by artificial intelligence, are still being developed.
Without those tools, there is no way to apply data to the overall disaster prevention system, which is necessary to forecast when a rogue wave would hit the shoreline well before it does, so that people can clear out of the area, Tung said.
Once the tools observing and forecasting rogue waves are ready, the CWB would hold meetings with other ministries and agencies to discuss the use of such tools in the disaster prevention system, Tung said.
Even when the tools and the system are ready, they would only be able to be used in places considered rogue wave hotspots, instead of providing complete coverage of Taiwan’s coastlines, Tung said.
At this point, the CWB can only advise people that when heavy winds start to blow, a typhoon is in Taiwan’s vicinity, or the tide surges, people need to beware of the potential danger.
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