US political scientist Francis Fukuyama said that he hopes Taiwanese realize the importance of preparing for war and reintroduce military conscription.
“Let’s not be prematurely defeatist,” Fukuyama said to Taiwan in an article published on the American Purpose Web site on Thursday in which he analyzed the war between Russia and Ukraine.
He said he believed the Ukraine war “to this point has been a good lesson for China,” as China, just like Russia has shown in the war, has not had any combat experience in the past decade, despite seemingly building up high-tech military forces.
Photo: CNA
China also lacks experience in managing complex air force operations, which means that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force might make the same mistakes as the Russian Air Force, he said, describing the latter’s performance in the war as “miserable.”
“Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine,” Fukuyama said, citing that Russia is struggling outside several Ukrainian cities and facing serious supply problems, as well as frequent attacks from Ukraine.
False assumptions such as that Ukrainians were pro-Russia and Ukrainian forces could be crushed quickly led to Russia’s poor planning, Fukuyama said.
Photo: Irina Rybakova / Press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces / Handout via Reuters
He said that Russia’s “sudden and catastrophic” collapse would likely happen, especially in the north.
If Russia is defeated in the north, its better momentum in the south might be difficult to maintain, he added.
No diplomatic solution to the war is possible before Russia falls as predicted, as the costs on both sides have already been too huge to reach a compromise, Fukuyama said.
He approved the US’ decision to not set up a no-fly zone or help Polish MiG fighter jets to assist Ukraine, saying that it is better for Ukraine to defeat Russia alone, lest Russia claims that it was attacked by NATO and escalates the war.
Fukuyama also said that “Putin will not survive the defeat of his army,” because his support comes from his image as a strongman.
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