The re-election of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam (林鄭月娥) could lead the territory to become “another Shenzhen,” an Institute for National Defense and Security Research academic said.
Hong Kong is to elect its next chief executive in March from a pool of 1,500 candidates including incumbent Lam.
Lam is unpopular among Hong Kongers, and has had difficulty demonstrating her administrative ability, but if she were re-elected, it is likely the territory would become more like nearby Shenzhen, which is directly under Beijing’s control, researcher Shih Chien-yu (侍建宇) wrote in the institute’s latest defense security report.
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Beijing might allow two strong candidates to run against Lam to set expectations in Hong Kong, and thereby bolster the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) rule over the territory, Shih said.
The idea of a “South Shenzhen” was first raised by investment banker Alex Shiu (蕭少滔), who cited arbitrary arrests, seizures of assets and monitoring of individuals as becoming the norm in Hong Kong, as it is in China, Shih said.
“Beijing’s overhaul of the Hong Kong electoral system was an attempt to secure the legitimacy of its rule over Hong Kong in the short term,” he said. “The most recent Legislative Council elections shattered that legitimacy, but created two developments.”
Democratic legislators still exist, but they have largely chosen to either act as agents of the CCP or become “voiceless,” he said, adding that if they dare to provoke China’s authority, Beijing would simply tighten the restrictions further.
“Beijing is oscillating in its control over Hong Kong, between rule by the chief executive and rule by CCP committee members,” he said. “If the unpopular Lam is re-elected, the CCP will just govern Hong Kong directly, effectively turning it into a South Shenzhen.”
If the CCP wanted to maintain the illusion of a “one party, two systems” framework for Hong Kong, then it would likely not allow Lam to be re-elected, he said, adding that a candidate would be chosen that gives the illusion of political participation in the territory.
“Politics in Hong Kong are already bound to the CCP, regardless of what approach is taken. However, feigning competition in the chief executive election might help the CCP garner a sense of legitimacy,” he said.
“However, if the Legislative Council is not responsible for its own performance, then all political responsibility would fall on the CCP — a responsibility it cannot shirk,” he said.
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