Taiwan security analysts on Friday downplayed the importance of military exercises China is to hold next week in the East China Sea, and ruled out a link between the drills and an upcoming visit from US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar.
Taiwanese media have speculated that the military exercises might be a protest against Azar’s visit today.
Azar’s arrival marks the highest-level visit by a US Cabinet official in four decades. Beijing sees it as Washington’s disregard for China’s “one China” policy.
On Thursday, the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration posted a notice on its Web site about a three-day, live-fire exercise between 6am and noon from Tuesday to Thursday in waters off the Zhoushan Archipelago.
Commercial ships are not allowed to pass through the designated area during this time.
Ministry of National Defense spokesman Major General Shih Shun-wen (史順文) declined to comment on the matter, stressing that the authorities are closely watching China’s military deployment and would respond quickly to any issue in the region.
Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at National Chung Cheng University’s Institute of Strategic and International Affairs, said China’s military drills might have little connection to Azar’s visit.
Based on the location — which is about 550km from Taiwan — the timing and the types of war games to be staged, Lin said the drills are not aimed at seizing Taiwan.
Pointing to confirmed reports of a telephone call between Chinese Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe (魏鳳和) and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Lin said that communication channels between the nations have not been severed.
The US Department of Defense on Thursday said in a statement that Wei and Esper had spoken that day, with the latter expressing concern about China’s destabilizing activity near Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
China’s Xinhua news agency reported that Wei had urged the US to improve the management and control of maritime risks, avoid taking dangerous action that might escalate tensions, and safeguard regional peace and stability.
With China’s increased military maneuvers and growing encounters between US and Chinese forces, Lin said that the two countries would likely have an armed conflict at sea.
Exchanging views could help avoid a recurrence of an incident in 2001, when a US EP-3E reconnaissance plane collided with a Chinese military aircraft, he said.
Institute for National Defense and Security Research senior analyst Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said that China’s military exercises near the archipelago are routinely held every year.
This year’s drills are likely not politically motivated, he said.
However, Su said that regardless of the scale of China’s military maneuvers, Beijing always tries to make the international community believe that it is targeting Taiwan.
It is propaganda and part of psychological warfare, he said.
“Taiwan should act cautiously, but there is no need for it to overreact,” he said.
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