Community spread of COVID-19 is less likely if domestic cases remain under 12 percent of all confirmed cases, National Taiwan University’s College of Public Health said yesterday.
Observing whether cluster infections have occurred during the four-day holiday last week is crucial in the next 14 days, it said.
During the college’s weekly report on COVID-19 yesterday morning, vice dean Tony Chen (陳秀熙) analyzed the disease-prevention measures adopted by several countries, their timing and effects.
Photo: Tony Yao, Taipei Times
Taiwan used border control measures, including entry restrictions and home isolation or quarantine, as well as blocking travelers from China, Hong Kong and Macau from Feb. 7, and banning foreign nationals from entering the country from March 19, which were effective in blocking the virus at national borders, he said.
Three clusters of domestic cases — associated with a family, a hospital and a research institute — did not result in community spread in Taiwan as most people cooperated with the government’s mitigation plans, including suspending classes and reducing large public gatherings, taking personal protective measures and disinfecting the environment, he said.
A majority of the confirmed cases were imported, with only a few domestic ones — many of whom were exposed to imported cases who did not practice home quarantine properly, the college said.
If the situation remains the same, with the number of weekly reported domestic cases kept at less than 20, community spread would be unlikely, it said.
“If domestic cases remain under 12 percent of all cases, we do not think a second wave of large-scale local outbreak will occur,” Chen said.
However, the next 14 days are crucial in determining whether clustered infections might have resulted from crowds gathering during the holiday, he said, but added that even if small-scale clusters are reported, if they could be stopped from spreading further through measures such as social distancing and wearing masks, community-wide spread could still be prevented.
Mitigation plans are adopted to buy time and protect people before a COVID-19 vaccine is developed, which is a better method than sacrificing a proportion of the population to obtain herd immunity, he said.
Overcrowding at tourist sites during the holiday could have been prevented by all government departments, not only local governments and the Ministry of Health and Welfare, college dean Chan Chang-chuan (詹長權) said.
Health professionals at hospitals and long-term care centers must be protected to avoid overwhelming the health system, and expanded testing should be conducted on seriously ill patients and elderly people at care centers, service personnel who often encounter strangers, and residents of communities where a confirmed case lives, he said.
Chan also suggested extending social distancing to at least 2m in long-term care facilities and indoors, and at least 1m on public transportation or outdoors, implementing flexible work or school time to reduce the flow of people and rearranging indoor seating in coffee shops to maintain a safe distance.
“Avoiding gatherings, keeping a safe social distance, washing hands frequently and wearing a mask are still the most effective methods people can take as COVID-19 prevention measures,” he said. “People should feel proud implementing them as they are acting to protect themselves and others.”
In other news, Facebook yesterday rolled out a global coronavirus information center to help people access reliable health information, resources and health management information about COVID-19 compiled by the WHO and local health authorities.
In Taiwan, real-time information and resources on COVID-19 are sourced from the nation’s Centers for Disease Control, Facebook said.
People can also obtain updates from the WHO in the form of articles and videos, it said.
Additional reporting by CNA
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