Taiwan’s interests are unlikely to be bartered away by US President Donald Trump at a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in exchange for China’s cooperation on North Korea, academics said.
Beijing hastily demanded the summit because it wants to restore US-China relations to their level under the administration of former US president Barack Obama, National Chung Hsing University professor of international politics Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥) said, adding that Xi also needs to maintain the image that he can effectively manage relations with the US.
“As such, China will have more expectations from the summit than the US,” he said.
Asked about the risk of Taiwan being used as a bargaining chip, Tsai said that while it is possible for China to try to test Trump’s position on Taiwan, the influence of many Trump Cabinet members who are wary of Beijing should not be overlooked.
The summit is likely to focus on North Korea and US-China bilateral security and trade issues, on which Washington expects Beijing to take more concrete action, he added.
As a result, the US is unlikely to concede Taiwan’s interests in exchange for Chinese concessions on North Korea, Tsai said, adding: “Instead of asking China for help, the US is putting pressure on China.”
National Sun Yat-sen University professor of China and Asia-Pacific studies Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁) concurred, saying that the Trump administration’s attitude “makes it unlikely that China will gain much on the Taiwan issue this time.”
However, while it is not likely that a fourth joint US-China communique will be issued at the summit, Taipei should take seriously the possibility of such a statement being issued, Kuo said.
Taipei should observe the summit closely to take timely action to forestall China’s attempts to take advantage of Taiwan, especially in light of Beijing’s efforts to shape the narrative after a joint statement in 2009 by Obama and then-Chinese president Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), he added.
Taipei should be ready to immediately demand clarification from Washington if Beijing attempts to manipulate political language to refer to China’s “one China” principle or other Taiwan-related issues, regardless of whether a joint statement is issued at the summit, Tsai said.
Trump’s main concern is North Korea’s nuclear weapons and its support of terrorism, problems that China has not been active in solving, National Sun Yat-sen University professor of China and Asia-Pacific studies Lin Wen-chun (林文程) said.
If Trump begins to see China as a threat, Taiwan’s importance could rise, and as many members of his Cabinet have been dependable friends of Taipei, there would be an opportunity to secure the sale of advanced fighter aircraft, he said.
Trump’s unpredictability might prompt Xi to adopt a more cautious approach on cross-strait issues, which could be advantageous for Taipei, he added.
Many US voters who supported Trump dislike China, so he might need to balance maintaining a relationship with Beijing and not making concessions, meaning the summit is likely to be more symbolic than substantive, Japan-based Doshisha University professor of law Koji Murata said.
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