Sun, Mar 11, 2012 page3

• Taiwan needs risk management plan for China: NSB

  • Staff Writer, with CNA
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  The economy is a critical factor in the government’s management of cross-strait risk and crisis, according to National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Tsai Der-sheng (蔡得勝), but risk management has gone beyond traditional factors such as politics and the military in dealing with China.

  Tsai, in an interview with the Central News Agency published yesterday, said that while President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has been focusing on improving cross-strait relations, and while bilateral exchanges have increased substantively, an “overall security mechanism” is important for implementing the government’s China policy.

  He said the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a landmark pact signed in 2010, is an important indication of Taiwan’s confidence in opening up to China.

  

  National Security Bureau Director Tsai Der-sheng reports to the legislature’s Foreign and National Defense Committee in Taipei on Thursday.

  Photo: George Tsorng, Taipei Times

  Any opening policy that is well-prepared and implemented under a comprehensive risk management plan will bring more benefit than harm to the country, Tsai said.

  “Only by increasing exchanges and interaction with the mainland can we hope to improve mutual understanding and reduce the likelihood of misjudgements or miscalculations by either side,” he said.

  Tsai tried to clear up a misunderstanding about the bureau’s alleged role in “putting the brakes on cross-strait policy.”

  “Frankly,” he said, “during my 30-odd years in the NSB, I have rarely seen an incidence of the NSB voicing opposition to a government policy.”

  The NSB just offers its analyses and suggestions for the reference of government leaders, helping them to become more informed about policy options that best serve national interests, Tsai said.

  He expressed concern, though, that the increasingly frequent exchanges across the strait under the Ma administration could be creating possible risks.

  The risks, according to Tsai, lie not in the management of personnel, commodity, financial or technological exchanges, but in the difficulty of forging a consensus among all sectors of society, as each individual involved has different interests related to China.

  “Our problem is that things are changing so fast and everybody’s relations with the mainland have changed so much. Everyone is looking at cross-strait relations from his or her personal perspective,” he said.

  A critical element in Tsai’s “overall security management” idea is to take advantage of China’s economic reform programs, since the economies of Taiwan and China are so closely intertwined.

  “Reap what we can and avoid what is likely to damage us -economically,” he said. “This is what we must understand and gain full control over.”

  Tsai suggested that all sectors of society, including the ruling and opposition parties, should discuss “what kind of open policy we want” and “what kind of relationship we would like to have with China.”

  At least, there should be a consensus on an acceptable cut-off point at which damage is perceived to be increasing, he said.

  Tsai also said that in the future, economic and social problems would pose the biggest threat to China because Beijing would be fighting an uphill battle against the Internet, given the rapid increase in its number of netizens, now estimated at about 500 million.

  Although Tsai did not elaborate on what kind of challenges Beijing will face economically, but it accepted that a hard landing for China’s economy would result in massive unemployment and social instability.

  Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶), in a report to the National People’s Congress several days ago, lowered the projection for China’s GDP growth this year to 7.5 percent.

  Tsai also said that Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (習近平), who is set to become China’s next leader, has the best understanding of Taiwan among the country’s top leadership.

  Tsai said there would be “no risk” of political instability in the process of Xi’s takeover this autumn from Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤).

  This is because Beijing has established a “leadership succession” mechanism through which a younger generation of leaders takes over from the preceding one. This is totally different from China’s past, when any new leader emerged only as the winner of a power struggle, he said.

  A sound system that ensures good care is taken of retired leaders and allows their offspring — the so-called Taizidang (太子黨) or Princelings Party — to enjoy privileges in the business world, has also contributed to the reduced political risk in succession, Tsai added.

  Xi, son of the late Chinese Vice Premier Xi Zhongxun (習仲勛), worked between 1985 and 2002 in Fujian Province, just across the Taiwan Strait, which gave him frequent contact with Taiwanese investors there.

  However, Tsai said that “as one who understands Taiwan commore than his predecessors, what Xi Jinping will be doing toward Taiwan might fall short of Taiwanese expectations,” because “whoever is at China’s helm will not dare to compromise on such issues as sovereignty and territory — defined by China as one of its core interests.”
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