If the Kaohsiung MRT scandal has dealt any blows to the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) election hopes, Pingtung County is where they have suffered the biggest hit, as support for the party's candidate has been severely dented in the wake of the scandal.
Since the Kaohsiung subway scandal broke two months ago, DPP's county commissioner candidate Tsao Chi-hung's (曹啟鴻) support has dropped to 19.7 percent, while Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) rival Wang Jin-shih's (王進士) support has grown by more than 6.3 percent, according to a poll by the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times' sister newspaper).
The poll, published on Nov. 17 showed that 26.6 percent of respondents supported Wang, and 21.9 percent backed Tsao.
Independent candidate Song Li-hua (宋麗華), who received 6.17 percent of support in the survey, is likely to split Wang's supporters due to her pro-blue political leanings.
Song's husband is independent Legislator Tsai Hao (蔡豪) who has been working with the pan-blue coalition.
Pingtung County has long been seen as a DPP stronghold. Many party heavyweights, such as DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), began their political careers in Pingtung County.
An analysis of the Liberty Times poll shows that more than half of respondents who used to support Tsao switched to Wang in the wake of the scandal.
Meanwhile, the DPP's proposal to reduce the 18 percent special interest rate given to retired civil servants, military personnel and teachers has also worked against Tsao's appeal to these groups, despite the fact that he was once a junior-high school teacher.
However, when asked about who will win tomorrow's election, the poll showed that 24.5 percent of respondents believed Tsao has a better chance than Wang, while only 16.6 percent of those asked thought Wang could win.
Election politics analyst Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明), an assistant researcher at the Academic Sinica, said the key to Tsao's winning is whether he could mobilize more DPP supporters to go to the polls.
Hsu said Wang has benefited from the DPP's struggle with the Kaohsiung subway scandal and his job as Pingtung Township chief has given him invaluable local publicity.
However, Wang is face with the possibility that the two pan-blue candidates will split of voters, so whether the pan-blue camp can mend the divide between the two is the key to winning the election, Hsu said.
Wang's campaigners have been very careful to avoid the "dump Song, save Wang" strategy as it might cause some of Song's supporters to give up on her in order to vote for Tsao.
Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
Pingtung candidates:
Wang Jin-shih 王進士
Party: Chinese Nationalist Party
Age: 58
Education: MPA from National Chungshan University
Political background:
1999-present: Pingtung Towhship chief
Tsao Chi-hung 曹啟鴻
Party: Democratic Progressive Party
Age: 57
Education: BA in East Asian languages from the Chinese Culture University, graduate study in the School of Education, National Kaohsiung Normal University.
Political background:
1994-1998 Taiwan Provincial Assembly councilor
2001-present: legislator
Song Li-hua 宋麗華
Party: Independent
Age: 36
Education: MBA from Houston University in Texas
Political background:
2002-present: Pingtung County councilor
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