Taipei Times: Since the International Crisis Group focuses on field-based research on various flashpoints around the globe, why hasn't the Taiwan Strait issue been chosen as a topic for the ICG, given that it is a flashpoint in the region?
Gareth Evans: It hasn't been one of our early priorities because so much work has been done on the issue -- there was a question as to whether, as a small organization, we could really add value to that. Our focus in the early years was on building credibility and a reputation in areas like Central Africa and so on that were not generating as much attention as they should.
As we have grown bigger and have much greater worldwide reach, it's certainly now highly sensible for us to be focusing on some Northeast Asia issues. And I anticipate that we will be probably be doing a project on the Taiwan Strait issue starting later this year. But that's a matter for our board to decide, which is meeting in April in London, and I don't want to anticipate that.
PHOTO: CHEN CHENG-CHANG, TAIPEI TIMES
TT: If the Taiwan Strait issue is to be included on ICG's agenda after the board meeting in London, what would be the likely themes that you'd include in the project?
Evans: ICG is always focused on conflict prevention, trying to anticipate the situations with explosive potential and to get the relevant governments and the world community to focus on appropriate strategy.
And I guess it would be no different here. There is a considerable lack of understanding still on transparency in terms of the strategic aspirations on both sides of the Strait and still far too little dialogue between the two sides about the future. And I guess what we would be interested in is trying to take further each side's understanding of what the potential problems are and the strategies towards dealing with it.
We will be devoting some reasonable resources to it and hopefully not just repeating the analyses that are endlessly available at the moment, but bringing some insights into the issue as we are trying to do elsewhere.
TT: During the Alfred Deakin Lectures in Australia last year, you pointed out that the central reality in the region is the growing power of China. Can you elaborate on that point and how that trend is likely to affect Beijing's interaction with Taipei?
Evans: Everybody acknowledges China's role as the emerging giant of the region, not the least as a result of Japan's continuing economic difficulties. As to how China is going to handle this new status, the signs so far are quite positive that China will not play a destructive role in the region and that it's overwhelmingly preoccupied with internal affairs and doesn't want to be a force for instability.
But at the same time, it's equally clear that provocation on the Taiwan issue is to be avoided because Chinese sensitivity across the whole leadership spectrum, including any future leadership, remain acutely sensitive on that issue.
What President Chen [Shui-bian (
TT: To what extent do you think interactions between China and Taiwan under the WTO can affect the two sides' political talks in the future?
Evans: Just as China-Taiwan interaction on APEC has been of significant importance, so too on an even greater scale under the WTO. It's a hugely significant and historic step forward to have that degree of involvement of the two countries.
It's all part of the process of building layer upon layer of inter-connection. And that's what you are doing on a bilateral level with cross-strait investment and business activities and tourism.
As the number of international organizations grow, in which it's possible to have contacts, communications and dialogues as equals, so too the confidence will grow, and the capacity to continue to manage this rather unique relationship and to ultimately find a solution that is workable for both sides. Possibly some variations on the confederation or federation models and it's one of the things that could evolve over time even though at the moment it's rejected and resisted by both sides.
TT: Although China and Taiwan under APEC cooperated on several issues and areas, such as agriculture, during behind-closed-door negotiations, interactions between the two at many APEC ministerial press conferences have been quite tense, thereby increasing Taiwanese' dislike of the Chinese regime.
Evans: It's an iron rule of public discourse that when people are asked provocative questions by the media they feel the need to defend their position and to speak to their domestic audience so that it won't get them into political trouble. It's an iron rule of political life. Living and breathing this stuff as I have for so many years, I don't take that very seriously.
What matters more is the underlying dynamics and the way in which the maturity and intelligence with which countries deal with each other on matters of substance. You can put up with the fair amount of the show business in the public dialogue, provided that privately there are reasonable levels of maturity and intelligence at work and reasonable opportunities for understanding to develop.
All of these would be much enhanced, obviously, if some formal dialogue process could get started, addressing the whole range of issues involved in cross-strait relationships. But I think that's just a slow process winning enough confidence to make that possible.
TT: How can Taiwan maximize its national interests as a new member of the WTO?
Evans: Respect for Taiwan is enhanced when the focus is on substantive issues rather than political gamesmanship. A lot of the attention that Taiwan has focused in the past on winning recognition from smaller countries, often in exchange for development support, has not been particularly productive in terms of the larger aspirations the country has to be a serious player on the policy stage -- at least in the economic area.
The recognition game that has been preoccupying the foreign ministry [in Taiwan] for the last something years definitely kept a lot of diplomats off the street, but whether it's very productive in terms of the overall stature of Taiwan is another question ... Now that Taiwan has a very serious business to get stuck into -- WTO and elsewhere -- the focus in the diplomacy would naturally shift to advancing those agendas rather than diplomatic gamesmanship which doesn't really count very much in the larger scale of things.
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