Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) has signalled his intention to continue to set the political agenda. Whether the political lobby he intends to form will be able to work with the president's alliance, however, will depend on the successful establishment of a high-quality and stable pro-government majority.
In stating his plans for Taiwan Advocates (群策會) -- a cross-party, multi-ethnic advocacy group -- only three days before the elections, it is clear that Lee's intention was to set the political agenda after the elections and to personally take the lead in the reshaping of Taiwan's political landscape.
PHOTO: LEE JUNG-PING, TAIPEI TIMES
Lee elaborated on how Taiwan Advocates might link up with President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) alliance for national stabilization to create a pro-localization movement strong enough to generate a bandwagon effect.
He said that after the elections, possibilities for political realignment include a KMT-DPP alliance, a KMT-PFP-New Party alliance and even a "cross-party alliance for national stability." Due to the lack of trust among the parties, however, all these suggestions may be taken as little more than electoral gimmicks designed to sway the voter.
As for Lee's organization, although it too was proposed shortly before the elections, Lee looks as if he is seeking to appeal to people who share a common ideal.
Moreover, the organization is not a political party and will not participate in the actual distribution of power. Instead, according to Lee, the role of Taiwan Advocates will be to nurture the second stage of Taiwan's political realignment. As a result, a broad range of members will be necessary for the organization to play a role in forging a more stable political environment.
Moreover, presumably as a hint that he is seeking a merger of political parties, Lee repeatedly emphasized yesterday that Taiwan should learn from Japan's "1955 System" (
With the national stabilization alliance, on the other hand, the ruling party is seeking post-election power-sharing and cooperation. Every KMT member that is being targeted by the DPP will have his or her own calculations about whether or not to join the alliance. But the situation won't be as simple as Chen's hope that, "Everyone will come and talk to me."
It will be easier for "loners" to join Chen's alliance and reap the windfall of being part of a key minority group. It will be in the interests of powerful figures capable of rallying 20 to 30 legislators for unanimous action to stay with the KMT, where they will have a groundswell of support of at least 80 legislators.
If, upon joining the stabilization alliance, a group is effectively reduced to being a small faction within another political party, it will not be forgiven by the betrayed party. By joining the alliance, they risk a reduction in their clout.
On the other hand, achieving a stable alliance could turn out to be Chen's greatest achievement, but he needs to carefully weigh the pros and cons. Some people will need to be approached directly so that mutual benefits can be maximized. But with others, direct presidential maneuvers could undermine his standing and with it the DPP's clout as a major political party.
Despite the proximity on the political spectrum of certain elements within the DPP and KMT, the lack of buffers makes it difficult to jump over the two's differences in one leap. A connecting point is needed to promote cooperation between the two.
The Taiwan Advocates group will be established under the banner of support for the stabilization alliance. On top of this is support from a man who was KMT chairman for 12 years. If it successfully serves as a midway point between the two major parties, then it could help bring about political stability.
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