Despite Washington's refusal to sell Taiwan submarines, Taiwan's military leaders still consider such vessels the most valuable weapons systems that the US can sell Taiwan, a newly-published US congressional report reveals.
Observers here, however, say that Taiwan will again be refused submarines when the Bush administration makes its decision next month on Taipei's annual list of defense requests.
The report, prepared by Jim Doran, the chief Asia expert on the staff of Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms, was based on a week-long trip Doran made to Taiwan in advance of what is expected to be a vigorous debate on arms sales over the coming month.
It also comes a week ahead of a crucial Washington visit by China's Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
The report provides the most complete run-down of Taipei's "wish list" this year, and contained an impassioned argument for the Bush administration to give Taiwan what it wants.
The emphasis on submarines, however, struck some Asia specialists in Washington as odd.
"Taiwan commanders repeatedly stated that by far the most important item for Taiwan's navy, indeed for Taiwan's entire military, is the acquisition of submarines," the report said.
It noted that China has a 65-4 advantage in submarines over Taiwan and that two of Taiwan's subs are World War II-era Guppy class subs that are unsuitable for combat.
"Because of their survivability, submarines will be a crucial last line of sea-based defense against a Chinese blockade," the report says.
"Should Taiwan's surface fleet be blitzed with air-and sea-launched missiles early in a confrontation, and should Taiwan's air bases be rendered inoperative by SRBM [short-range ballistic missile] strikes, a fleet of surviving submarines could still possibly allow Taiwan to thwart a Chinese blockade by stealthily attacking the surface ships that would enforce that blockade," it said.
Some congressional sources pointed to that section as the most surprising in the report. Even strong supporters of Taiwan question the request.
"It is the least realistic and most politically charged of any of the requests," said Larry Wortzel, director of the Asian Studies Center of the Heritage Foundation, who called Taiwan's other weapons requests "absolutely right" and "very realistic."
The US has not manufactured a diesel submarine for more than 40 years, and none exist, Wortzel said. "And we're not about to sell them a nuclear submarine."
In addition, Taiwan is hoping "that there is some US shipyard that has offered to manufacture diesel subs for them [but] that shipyard happens to be in the district of a senator who will not touch this with a 10-foot pole," he said.
That district is in Mississippi, home of Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott.
Taiwan could buy the submarines from other countries that still make them, or buy used subs on the open market, Wortzel said.
The report also made a strong case for the sale of four Arleigh-Burke destroyers equipped with the AEGIS radar and battle management system, whose sale was blocked for at least three years by the Clinton administration.
"Taiwan wants, and Taiwan needs, AEGIS destroyers to provide it with an adequate sea-based air defense and C4I (command, control, communications and information) system to deal with rapidly developing PRC air and naval threats. As of now, Taiwan's sea-based air defense and C4I capabilities are rudimentary at best," the report said.
"If Taiwan is to have any chance of overcoming China's 10-1 combat aircraft advantage, 2-1 surface fleet advantage, and its new and pending acquisition of modern and deadly weapons such as Su-27 and Su-30 fighters, Sovremenny destroyers and Sunburn and AA-12 missiles, a modern integrated sea-based air defense system will be crucial. AEGIS will provide exactly that," it said.
Doran also urged the sale of four Kidd-class destroyers as well, while Taiwan waits the eight or so years needed for delivery of the AEGIS vessels.
"Costing a fraction of AEGIS destroyers and able to be delivered and operating within a couple of years, the Kidds will provide a practical interim solution to Taiwan's sea-based air defense needs before 2005," it said, the year the Pentagon predicted in a 1999 report that China will be able to attack Taiwan wreaking serious economic and military damage.
Doran's report is expected to play an important role in a briefing scheduled for this Friday, in which State and Defense Departments officials will brief key congressional staffers on Taiwan's request list and the administration's likely response.
By law, such a briefing must take place at least 30 days before the president makes the arms sales decision.
The report also reads as a reiteration of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act that Helms introduced unsuccessfully in the Senate last year, which called for closer cooperation between US and Taiwan military forces.
Sources say Helms plans to delay introduction of similar legislation this year until after Bush's arms decisions in the hope that the decision will make the bill unnecessary.
The State Department had no comment on the specifics of the report.
"We will continue to fulfil our obligations to provide defensive articles and services to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient capabilities to defend itself in accordance with long standing policy and practice," a department spokesman said. "We do not discuss the specific details of this process."
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