Thu, Feb 01, 2001 page3

• Cloudy outlook in the political arena, analysts predicit

  • By William Ide / STAFF REPORTER
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  The bitter political struggle over whether the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant should be built is unlikely to end if President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) fails to find a solution opposition lawmakers can accept, political analysts said yesterday. In fact, the debate could rage on until a Legislative Yuan election is held sometime this year.

  "There simply is no solution [to the issue of the nuclear power plant]," said Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), a professor at National Chengchi University and political analyst. "What lies ahead is a long period of confrontation."

  While the Council of Grand Justices' constitutional interpretation had suggested Premier Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄) could step down, and that an Energy Law could be established to regulate the state's energy supply, political analysts said neither solution was likely.

  "We are still going in circles," said Philip Yang (楊永明), a political science professor at National Taiwan University.

  One move that could help the situation though, Wu said, would be "an early election."

  Taiwan's legislature is scheduled to hold an election at the end of this year.

  Such a decision, however, is dependent on the legislature.

  If the legislature passes a vote of no-confidence against the Cabinet, then Chen could dismiss the lawmaking body, a move that would trigger an election 60 days after the decision was made.

  Yang said that while the KMT, which holds a majority in the legislature, might consider such a move, it was unlikely it would come in the next two months.

  "The KMT is likely to wait until its March election for party chairman," Yang said. "It might happen in April or May, if nothing new develops."

  This is because the debate, from its beginnings on Oct. 27 when the construction of the plant was halted, had very little to do with the plant itself, analysts pointed out. In many ways it is just an extension of the presidential election, which took place last year in March, Wu said.

  Listen to what people like KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), the KMT's candidate in last year's election, has said, Wu pointed out. "It sounds like electioneering," he said.

  Most foreign observers regard the situation with amazement, he said. "Some asked: `Don't presidential candidates who lose just fade out. Who remembers Mike Dukakis?'"

  But since the KMT currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan and the government has been unwilling to accept what is called the "semi-presidential" system or allow the KMT to appoint the premier, it has done everything in its power to thwart the government.

  "Since the president won't allow them to appoint the premier they'll give him hell," Wu said.

  The meeting between Chen, Legislative Yuan speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) and Chang is hoped to put an end to the debate.

  But political analysts were also pessimistic that such a meeting would help.

  Yang said he "didn't expect more turmoil in society" as the deadlock continues, but did expect the opposition "would continue to pressure the Cabinet" until it accepted the legislature's resolution.

  Wu said that, because both sides were so divided over the issue, he doubted any new ground could be made and questioned one possible compromise that has already been floated, building the plant but not using it: "To spend all that money for nothing," he said.

  Liu Bi-rong (劉必榮), a professor from Soochow University and negotiation expert said that if a trade-off was, as some suggested, an early closure of the First, Second and Third Nuclear Power Plants in exchange for the construction of the fourth plant, "it would be a pity."

  "Here we've wasted all this time only to come back to a solution that anyone could have thought up," Liu said.
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