The partisan standoff over President William Lai’s (賴清德) proposed defense budget has raised questions about the nation’s ability to adequately fund its own defense, the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) said in a report released on Tuesday.
The report, titled Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues, said the government has increased its defense budget at an average annual rate of 5 percent from 2019 to 2023, with about 2.5 percent of its GDP spent on defense in 2024.
Lai in November last year proposed a special budget of about US$40 billion over eight years, and said he intends to increase defense spending to about 3.3 percent of GDP this year, the report said.
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However, Taiwan faces domestic challenges in realizing its defense goals, as policymakers disagree over how best to deter China, the report added.
While the two major political parties have expressed support for increasing defense investment, a partisan standoff between the executive and the opposition-controlled legislature has raised questions about the nation’s ability to adequately fund its defense, it said.
The military has also struggled to recruit, train and retain personnel, while the nation’s civil defense preparedness is considered insufficient, as energy, food, water, communications and other infrastructure are vulnerable to external disruption, the report said.
It is unclear what costs Taiwanese would be willing or are able to bear in a conflict, it added.
Meanwhile, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone a decades-long modernization program focused on developing the capabilities needed to annex Taiwan, the report said.
The PLA is believed to soon be able to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan, including missile strikes, seizures of Taiwan’s small outlying islands, blockades, an amphibious landing and a takeover of Taiwan proper, the report added.
China engages in persistent noncombat operations that erode Taiwan’s military advantages and readiness, including large-scale military exercises and near-daily patrols in the vicinity of the nation; cyberoperations; uncrewed combat aerial vehicle flights circling Taiwan; and stepped-up law enforcement activities near Kinmen County, it said.
These “gray zone” activities provide training and intelligence-gathering opportunities for China, strain Taiwan’s forces and normalize PLA operations near Taiwan to undermine Taipei’s ability to discern the imminence of an attack, the report said, adding that Beijing likely uses such activities to sow doubt in the public about the military’s capabilities and to pressure Taiwan into acquiescing to “unification.”
Chinese leaders are believed to prefer gradually assuming control over Taiwan through “gray zone” coercion and political warfare rather than risk a large-scale conflict, it said.
Taiwan has certain advantages, such as US political and military support, and its geography, the report said.
The Taiwan Strait is about 70 nautical miles (130km) wide at its narrowest point, and weather conditions make it perilous to navigate at certain times of the year, while the nation’s mountainous terrain and densely populated west coast make it difficult for enemies to launch an amphibious landing and invasion operations, it said.
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