The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday upgraded its first-quarter GDP growth expectation for Taiwan to 5.37 percent after in February estimating 3.46 percent for the period.
The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected exports due to demand for technology goods, and solid capital formation on the part of the government, public enterprises and private firms, the agency said in a statement.
“Due to the strong demand for electronic, and information and communications products, real exports of goods and services grew by 20.11 percent year-on-year” in the first quarter, the statement said, adding that “imports also grew by 23.66 percent year-on-year.”
Photo: Ritchie B. Tongo, EPA-EFE
“Regarding gross capital formation, investments in machinery equipment, construction and intellectual property products increased,” it said.
Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation expanded 14.72 percent year-on-year, it said.
The 5.37 percent GDP growth in the January-to-March quarter accelerated from 2.90 percent in the previous quarter and marked the strongest expansion since the first quarter last year, when it was 6.64 percent, DGBAS data showed.
The agency’s preliminary GDP data, which are to be revised after more data are collected in the coming weeks, exceeded Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co’s (元大投顧) forecast of 4.2 percent.
“Exports of artificial intelligence-related goods are booming and uncertainty over US tariffs has led manufacturers to front-load goods in advance, while firms continue to invest in advanced semiconductor process technologies and a stable labor market supports domestic consumption,” Yuanta said of its prediction in a note ahead of the DGBAS statement.
In February, the DGBAS forecast Taiwan’s full-year economic growth would be 3.14 percent.
However, several research institutes in the past few weeks revised their predictions to below 3 percent, citing US tariff concerns and shifting dynamics in global trade.
US President Donald Trump on April 2 imposed a 32 percent “reciprocal” tariff on Taiwan, but on April 9 paused it for 90 days, although a 10 percent baseline tariff remains in place.
The initial tariffs would still have a substantial effect on growth, given Taiwan is a trade-reliant economy and the US accounted for 23.4 percent of Taiwan’s overall exports last year.
The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (中華經濟研究院) last month cut its full-year GDP growth forecast to 0.16 percent in the worst-case scenario.
Last week, the IMF forecast that Taiwan’s economy would grow 2.9 percent, while S&P Global predicted 2.1 percent GDP growth this year.
If growth rates in the final three quarters follow the DGBAS’ forecasts, this year’s GDP growth would be 3.6 percent, the agency said yesterday, although the projection did not take into account the effects of US tariffs.
The agency is scheduled to update its full-year GDP growth data at the end of this month.
CREDIT-GRABBER: China said its coast guard rescued the crew of a fishing vessel that caught fire, who were actually rescued by a nearby Taiwanese boat and the CGA Maritime search and rescue operations do not have borders, and China should not use a shipwreck to infringe upon Taiwanese sovereignty, the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said yesterday. The coast guard made the statement in response to the China Coast Guard (CCG) saying it saved a Taiwanese fishing boat. The Chuan Yu No. 6 (全漁6號), a fishing vessel registered in Keelung, on Thursday caught fire and sank in waters northeast of Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台). The vessel left Keelung’s Badouzih Fishing Harbor (八斗子漁港) at 3:35pm on Sunday last week, with seven people on board — a 62-year-old Taiwanese captain surnamed Chang (張) and six
LEVERAGE: China did not ‘need to fire a shot’ to deny Taiwan airspace over Africa when it owns ‘half the continent’s debt,’ a US official said, calling it economic warfare The EU has raised concerns about overflight rights following the delay of President William Lai’s (賴清德) planned state visit to the Kingdom of Eswatini after three African nations denied overflight clearance for his charter at the last minute. Taiwanese allies Paraguay and Saint Kitts and Nevis, as well as several US lawmakers and the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) condemned China for allegedly pressuring the countries. Lai was scheduled to fly directly to Taiwan’s only African ally from yesterday to Sunday to celebrate the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III’s accession and his 58th birthday, but Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar suddenly revoked
RISKY BUSINESS: The ‘incentives’ include initiatives that get suspended for no reason, creating uncertainty and resulting in considerable losses for Taiwanese, the MAC said China’s “incentives” failed to sway sentiment in Taiwan, as willingness to work in China hit a record low of 1.6 percent, a Ministry of Labor survey showed. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) also reported that the number of Taiwanese workers in China has nearly halved from a peak of 430,000 in 2012 to an estimated 231,000 in 2024. That marked a new low in the proportion of Taiwanese going abroad to work. The ministry’s annual survey on “Labor Life and Employment Status” includes questions respondents’ willingness to seek employment overseas. Willingness to work in China has steadily declined from
The number of pet cats in Taiwan surpassed that of pet dogs for the first time last year, reaching 1,742,033, a 32.8 percent increase from 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture said yesterday, citing a survey. By contrast, the number of pet dogs declined slightly by 1.2 percent over the same period to 1,462,528, the ministry said. Despite the shift, households with dogs still slightly outnumber those with cats by 1.2 percent. However, while the number of households with multiple dogs has remained relatively stable, households keeping more than two cats have increased, contributing to the overall rise in the feline population. The trend
RSS