The global consequences of a war over Taiwan would be as great as the impact of World War II, making the world “a radically different place,” Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd on Thursday.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who turns 71 this month, wants to achieve “final national unification” with Taiwan, he would likely act in the next decade before he reaches his 80s, Rudd said in a speech in Honolulu.
“We would be foolish to ignore the increasing clarity of China’s military signaling, including the pattern of its most recent military exercises,” said Rudd, who was twice Australian prime minister in the previous decade.
Photo: Reuters
Whether China acts would depend on its perception of the strength of US deterrence, he said.
The US has expressed concern about Chinese military activity near Taiwan, including after the presidential election and the inauguration of President William Lai (賴清德) last month.
Taiwan and the US have no official diplomatic relationship, as Washington formally recognizes Beijing, but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and is the nation’s most important international backer.
The US recognized that if China was successful in annexing Taiwan, it would impact US credibility and have “profound, and potentially irreversible effect on the perceived reliability of US alliances worldwide,” Rudd said.
The US, China and Taiwan have a common interest in avoiding open military confrontation on the future of Taiwan, said Rudd, a China academic who was president of the Asia Society in New York until last year.
“The economic costs, domestic political impacts and unknowable geostrategic consequences that such a war would generate would likely be of an order of magnitude that we have not seen since the Second World War,” he said.
“Whatever the outcome (a US victory, a Chinese victory or a bloody stalemate), the world is likely to become a radically different place after such a war than it was before,” Rudd said.
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