A potential crisis across the Taiwan Strait on Thursday was rated as one of the top threats to US interests for the fourth consecutive year by the US Council on Foreign Relations.
The Center for Preventive Action published the results of the Preventive Priorities Survey, which compiled assessments by US foreign policy experts on the likelihood and effects of 30 potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate this year.
A “severe cross-strait crisis” that would affect the US and neighboring countries triggered by Beijing’s increasing economic and military pressure on Taiwan, especially around the nation’s presidential and legislative elections on Saturday next week, was one of the eight contingencies rated as “Tier I (High Priority)” in the report.
Photo: Reuters
The likelihood of such a crisis is “moderate,” but its effect on US interests would be “high,” the report said.
A high impact on US interests refers to a contingency that would directly threaten the US homeland, a defense treaty ally or a vital strategic interest, and “thus is likely to trigger a US military response,” it said.
The annual report rated possible conflicts between the US and China over Taiwan as a “Tier II (Medium Priority)” threat for its assessments in 2019 and 2020.
As tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified and the frequency of Chinese military activities near Taiwan increased, the situation was classified as a “Tier I” risk for the first time in 2021.
The growing risks of armed conflict with Russia and China are “by far the most worrisome” threats to the US, council director Paul Stares said.
“The trend toward less armed conflict around the world since the end of the Cold War is now moving in the opposite direction,” he said.
Three contingencies were rated as highly likely and having a high impact on US interests — “an unprecedented number” since the survey was launched in 2008, the report said.
Among the three, the possibility of growing political polarization leading to acts of domestic terrorism and political violence in the US was listed as the situation of most concern for the first time in 16 years, it said.
The other two were an expansion of the war between Hamas and Israel, and a surge of immigration to the US driven by criminal violence, corruption and economic hardship in Central America and Mexico, it said.
Other Tier I threats — which were all judged to be moderately likely and high-impact — were an escalation of the war in Ukraine, direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, a highly disruptive cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the US and a security crisis in northeast Asia triggered by North Korea, it said.
The survey was conducted in November last year, receiving about 500 responses from US government officials, foreign policy experts and academics, it said.
An Emirates flight from Dubai arrived at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport yesterday afternoon, the first service of the airline since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Saturday. Flight EK366 took off from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at 3:51am yesterday and landed at 4:02pm before taxiing to the airport’s D6 gate at Terminal 2 at 4:08pm, data from the airport and FlightAware, a global flight tracking site, showed. Of the 501 passengers on the flight, 275 were Taiwanese, including 96 group tour travelers, the data showed. Tourism Administration Deputy Director-General Huang He-ting (黃荷婷) greeted Taiwanese passengers at the airport and
POSSIBILITIES EMERGE: With Taiwan’s victory and Japan’s narrow win over Australia, Taiwan now have a chance to advance if South Korea also beat the Aussies Taiwan has high hopes that the national baseball team would advance to the World Baseball Classic (WBC) quarter-finals after clinching a crucial 5-4 victory over South Korea in a nail-biting extra-inning game at the Tokyo Dome yesterday. Boosted by three home runs — two solo shots by Yu Chang (張育成) and Cheng Tsung-che (鄭宗哲) and a two-run homer by Stuart Fairchild — the triumph gave Taiwan a much-needed second victory in the five-team Pool C, where only the top two finishers would advance to the knockout stage in Miami, Florida. Entering extra innings with the game tied at four apiece, Taiwan scored
MISSION OF PEACE: The foreign minister urged Beijing to respect Taiwan’s existence as an independent nation, and work together to ensure peace and stability in the region Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) yesterday rejected Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi’s (王毅) comments about Taiwan, criticizing China as a “troublemaker” in the international community and a disruptor of cross-strait peace. Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of the Chinese National People’s Congress, Wang said that Taiwan has always been a territory of China and that it would be impossible for it to become its own country. The “return” of Taiwan to China was the natural outcome of the Chinese people’s resistance against Japan in World War II, and that any pursuit of independence was “doomed
One person was killed and another seven injured today when a tourist shuttle bus plunged 30m to 40m down a ravine in Nantou County, the Tourism Administration said. The bus is suspected to have suddenly accelerated out of control near the flower center of the Sun-Link-Sea Forest Recreation Area, a popular attraction during cherry blossom season. Of the eight onboard, a 66-year-old man was killed, four were seriously injured and three sustained minor injuries, including the driver. The Nantou County Police Department said it received a report of the incident at 12:15pm and dispatched seven teams to assist. All surviving passengers have been transferred
RSS