A potential crisis across the Taiwan Strait on Thursday was rated as one of the top threats to US interests for the fourth consecutive year by the US Council on Foreign Relations.
The Center for Preventive Action published the results of the Preventive Priorities Survey, which compiled assessments by US foreign policy experts on the likelihood and effects of 30 potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate this year.
A “severe cross-strait crisis” that would affect the US and neighboring countries triggered by Beijing’s increasing economic and military pressure on Taiwan, especially around the nation’s presidential and legislative elections on Saturday next week, was one of the eight contingencies rated as “Tier I (High Priority)” in the report.
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The likelihood of such a crisis is “moderate,” but its effect on US interests would be “high,” the report said.
A high impact on US interests refers to a contingency that would directly threaten the US homeland, a defense treaty ally or a vital strategic interest, and “thus is likely to trigger a US military response,” it said.
The annual report rated possible conflicts between the US and China over Taiwan as a “Tier II (Medium Priority)” threat for its assessments in 2019 and 2020.
As tensions between Washington and Beijing intensified and the frequency of Chinese military activities near Taiwan increased, the situation was classified as a “Tier I” risk for the first time in 2021.
The growing risks of armed conflict with Russia and China are “by far the most worrisome” threats to the US, council director Paul Stares said.
“The trend toward less armed conflict around the world since the end of the Cold War is now moving in the opposite direction,” he said.
Three contingencies were rated as highly likely and having a high impact on US interests — “an unprecedented number” since the survey was launched in 2008, the report said.
Among the three, the possibility of growing political polarization leading to acts of domestic terrorism and political violence in the US was listed as the situation of most concern for the first time in 16 years, it said.
The other two were an expansion of the war between Hamas and Israel, and a surge of immigration to the US driven by criminal violence, corruption and economic hardship in Central America and Mexico, it said.
Other Tier I threats — which were all judged to be moderately likely and high-impact — were an escalation of the war in Ukraine, direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel, a highly disruptive cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the US and a security crisis in northeast Asia triggered by North Korea, it said.
The survey was conducted in November last year, receiving about 500 responses from US government officials, foreign policy experts and academics, it said.
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