China would be making “a grave strategic mistake” if it tried to attack Taiwan, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley said in an interview with CNN that aired on Sunday.
Asked by host Fareed Zakaria whether the US could repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Milley said: “It is entirely possible.”
Milley reiterated that the US still maintains the Taiwan Relations Act, and that it wants “a peaceful outcome between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China, and whatever that is between those two peoples.”
Photo: screen grab from CNN
“Militarily, I think China would make a grave strategic mistake if they attempted to attack to seize the island of Taiwan. That is not the only option, by the way,” he said. “But to attack and seize the island of Taiwan is a very, very high bar. It is the most complex of all operations to do.”
“Frankly, the Chinese military capability is probably not there right this second to do that,” he added. “[Chinese] President Xi [Jinping (習近平)] in public unclassified speeches has challenged the People’s Liberation Army and Navy and Air Force to develop that capability by 2027,” Milley said. “It used to be the 2030s and then he moved it to 2027. That does not mean he made a decision to do it, but that means that he wants them to have the capability to do it. What that also means is they do not have the capability right this second, at least in his mind.”
While China hopes to exceed the US’ military capabilities by the middle of this century, the US is not going to stand still, but would continue to modernize, he added.
“There is value in the phrase peace through strength. So the objective here is deterrence. You do not want a great power war,” he said. “We have not had one in 80 years and we need to make sure that it is avoided.”
“China can be evaluated in a lot of different ways, but great power is certainly what they are. They are economically and militarily capable, and we should try our very best to avoid open-armed conflict with China,” Milley said.
Taiwan is projected to lose a working-age population of about 6.67 million people in two waves of retirement in the coming years, as the nation confronts accelerating demographic decline and a shortage of younger workers to take their place, the Ministry of the Interior said. Taiwan experienced its largest baby boom between 1958 and 1966, when the population grew by 3.78 million, followed by a second surge of 2.89 million between 1976 and 1982, ministry data showed. In 2023, the first of those baby boom generations — those born in the late 1950s and early 1960s — began to enter retirement, triggering
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