If China were to impose a blockade on Taiwan, global economic output would fall by US$2.7 trillion within a year and global GDP would fall 2.8 percent, the latest Global Peace Index showed.
The loss would almost double the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis, following which global trade dropped by more than 17 percent, the report published on Wednesday by the Sydney-based Institute of Economics and Peace said.
A blockade would lead to a fall in investment and consumption, increased volatility in financial markets, a substantial drop in global trade and lower productivity and output in any sector dependent on semiconductors, the report said.
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Almost 60 percent of the loss after a blockade would occur in China and Taiwan, whose economies would shrink by about 7 percent and 40 percent respectively, it said.
Countries in Southeast Asia, including Australia, Cambodia, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam, would be heavily affected, with falls in GDP ranging from 3 to 6 percent, it said.
The effect of a blockade would be especially strong on trade in computers and electronics as countries such as China, South Korea and Japan are highly dependent on imports of computer and electronic components from Taiwan, which is the global leader in semiconductor production, it said.
On the level of peacefulness, Taiwan was ranked 33rd among 163 countries around the world and categorized as “high” in peacefulness, the report showed.
Iceland remained the most peaceful country, a position it has held since 2008, followed by Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand and Austria.
Afghanistan was listed as the least peaceful country in the world for the eighth consecutive year, followed by Yemen, Syria, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.42 percent, the ninth consecutive year that measure has fallen, the report said, adding that the war in Ukraine had a significant effect on global peace.
“Over the last 15 years the world has become less peaceful,” with only two years recording year-on-year improvements in the level of global peacefulness, the report said.
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