China is likely experiencing 1 million new COVID-19 cases and 5,000 deaths from the virus every day, as it grapples with what is expected to be the biggest outbreak of the disease the world has ever seen, a new analysis showed.
However, the situation could get even worse for the country of 1.4 billion people.
The number of daily cases might rise to 3.7 million next month, UK-based Airfinity Ltd said.
Photo: EPA-EFE / XINHUA / ZOU JINGYI
There would likely be another surge of cases that would push the daily peak to 4.2 million in March, the analytics company said.
Its modeling of the scale and toll of China’s outbreak, which uses provincial data, showed that the impact of the country’s abrupt pivot away from its “zero COVID-19” policy far exceeds the Chinese government’s tally.
Officially, China reported 2,966 new cases on Wednesday.
Photo: AFP
There have been fewer than 10 officially recognized COVID-19 deaths since the beginning of this month.
However, that contrasts with a growing chorus of reports that hospitals are being overwhelmed with patients and crematoriums are being pushed well beyond their capacity.
Changes to how the government reports virus figures is also a factor. China has largely shut down its vast network of mass-testing booths and scrapped efforts to include every single infection in the daily tally, leaving residents to rely on rapid tests with no obligation to report the results.
The country’s health regulator also quietly adopted a narrower definition for what is considered a COVID-19 death — and much more selective than what many Western nations use — making it difficult to gauge the real toll from the deluge of infections.
These changes mean “the official data is unlikely to be a true reflection of the outbreak being experienced across the country,” Airfinity vaccines and epidemiology head Louise Blair said in a statement. “This change could downplay the extent of deaths seen in China.”
Accurately capturing the COVID-19 situation remains difficult across the world, as a pivot to living with the virus means fewer countries test frequently.
The emergence last year of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 sparked a jump in infections, including in the US, which posted its highest daily case count to date at nearly 1.4 million infections in January.
That coincided with the global number exceeding 4 million, Our World in Data figures showed.
STRENGTHENING: The defense budget this year is to focus on replenishment of artillery and rocket stocks, and equipment for F-16 jets, the defense ministry said Defense spending this year is to focus on preparing weapons and equipment for a “total blockade” by China, including parts for F-16 jets and replenishing weapons, the military said in a report. China staged war games around the nation in August last year, firing missiles over Taipei and declaring no-fly and no-sail zones in a simulation of how it would seek to cut Taiwan off in a war. In a report seeking legislative budget approval, the Ministry of National Defense said it began reviewing its strategic fuel reserves and repair abilities last year, but did not give details. In “anticipation of a total
ANTI-SHIP CONFIGURATION: The Tuo Chiang-class vessels are to be built for NT$9.7 billion by Lung Teh, a shipyard that previously built four similar corvettes for the navy The Ministry of National Defense on Wednesday awarded Lung Teh Shipbuilding (龍德造船) a NT$9.7 billion Co (US$317.57 million) contract to build five Tuo Chiang-class corvettes with anti-ship capabilities, a defense official familiar with the matter said yesterday. The corvettes would carry vertical launchers for four Hsiung Feng II (HF-2) missiles, as well as eight Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) anti-ship missiles, in contrast to ships configured for anti-air warfare, which carry eight HF-2 and four HF-3 missiles, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The anti-ship corvettes would be armed for improved standoff range against surface combatants and carry the latest
NINE TYPES: One of the devices can be carried by a single soldier and can destroy high-value, high-risk vehicles as well as target personnel, an official said Taiwan’s top military research body yesterday unveiled nine domestically developed drones in Taichung, including a loitering munition, or “suicide drone,” similar to the US-made AeroVironment Switchblade 300. The surveillance and attack drones shown to the media by the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology included the Albatross medium-range uncrewed aerial vehicle Nos. 1 and 2, and the Teng Yun 2 and Cardinal 2 and 3 indigenous uncrewed combat aerial vehicles. The institute also unveiled a domestically made drone inspired by the AeroVironment Switchblade 300, which Ukrainian forces have employed in the country’s war with Russia. Aeronautical Systems Research Division head Chi Li-pin (齊立平)
PARTIAL SUPPORT: Morris Chang said he agrees with the US’ goal to slow advances of China’s chip sector, but US policies that might boost chip prices perplex him Washington’s efforts to on-shore semiconductor production might lead to surges in chip prices and supply bottlenecks, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) founder Morris Chang (張忠謀) said yesterday. The 91-year-old industry veteran said he supports parts of Washington’s effort to slow China’s progress on advanced chip manufacturing. China is still six years behind Taiwan in making advanced chips, despite years-long efforts to catch up, Chang told a Commonwealth Magazine forum that he coheadlined with Tufts University assistant professor Chris Miller, an expert on the US-China rivalry’s effects on chip manufacturing. However, Chang said that other parts of the effort, particularly Washington’s on-shoring
RSS