China would learn from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but when Beijing might launch an invasion is difficult to predict, US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo told a media roundtable with reporters from across the Indo-Pacific region yesterday.
Paparo made the comment when asked whether the performance of Ukraine’s military and Western sanctions against Russia might deter Beijing from launching an assault or accelerate its plans for an invasion.
Beijing is, without a doubt, keeping close tabs on the war in Ukraine and attempting to learn from it, Paparo said.
Photo: EPA-EFE
Regardless of what it learns, Beijing would apply the lessons to bolstering its military, he added.
US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson, a former commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, last year predicted that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might launch an invasion of Taiwan within six years, but it was based on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) speeches, Paparo said.
Nailing down a specific time range for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is “extremely difficult,” he said, adding that Taiwan and the US must always be on their guard.
“I will not support” the mindset that the US can relax or make concessions to its commitment to liberty and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region, its Taiwan Relations Act, the “six assurances,” or the Three Joint Communiques, Paparo said.
The US’ commitment to defend Taiwan and support its efforts to enhance its self-defense capabilities should not slacken, he said.
Paparo praised President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng’s (邱國正) commitment to enhancing the nation’s capabilities.
Separately, Australian Minister for Defence Peter Dutton yesterday told Nine News that Australia’s strategic outlook has become “more complex and challenging.”
“There is the potential of conflict in our region in a couple of years,” he said.
Australia has accelerated plans to buy long-range strike missiles years ahead of schedule because of growing threats posed by Russia and China.
The accelerated rearming of fighter jets and warships would cost A$3.5 billion (US$2.67 billion) and increase deterrence to potential adversaries, Dutton told Seven Network television yesterday.
“There was a working assumption that an act of aggression by China toward Taiwan might take place in the 2040s. I think that timeline now has been dramatically compressed,” Dutton said.
“When we look at what’s happened in the Ukraine, there is the prospect of Russian going into Poland or somewhere else in Europe. That would be a repeat of the 1930s, and that’s not something that we should allow to happen,” Dutton said, referring to the beginning of World War II.
Under a revised timetable, FA-18F Super Hornet fighter jets would be armed with improved US-made air-to-surface missiles by 2024, three years earlier than planned.
The JASSM-ER missiles would enable fighters to engage targets at a range of 900km.
Additional reporting by AP
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