Chinese academics have reportedly been instructed to evaluate the possibility of unifying with Taiwan by force, as the war in Ukraine has caused Beijing to bring the Taiwan question to the fore of its agenda, a national security official said on Sunday.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is moving ahead on its “overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era,” which centers on peaceful methods such as legal or other action, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
However, it is also studying the possibility of using force, including lessons to be learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential effects of sanctions, they said.
Photo: Reuters
The CCP is likely to use violent and nonviolent methods in pursuit of the least costly resolution, the official said.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) chooses to imitate Russia and pursue a military solution, it would first try to create the most beneficial environment possible, they said.
That might entail elaborating on its “one China” principle, urging countries not to interfere, sowing discord among Taiwanese, guarding against potential sanctions and forming a plan for reconstruction after invasion, they added.
Photo courtesy of the Changhua County Government via CNA
There are three main ways the conflict in Ukraine could play out, each with a different effect on Taiwan, the official said.
In the first scenario, Russia wins the war and Russian President Vladimir Putin gets everything he wants, including the surrender of Kyiv and its vow not to join NATO, they said, adding that only under this scenario would Putin end the war.
This scenario, in which military action by an authoritarian state proves successful, would be the worst for Taiwan, as it would embolden Xi to launch his own conflict, the official said.
In the second scenario, the war continues for longer than two months, dragging Russia further toward economic collapse, although Putin would be unable to retreat for fear of the political repercussions, the official said.
Meanwhile, the refugee crisis in Europe and inflation in the US would worsen, potentially affecting the US midterm elections, they said.
Facing mounting challenges, these nations would request assistance from China, thereby enabling Beijing to exert greater influence internationally and pressure Western nations into accepting its interpretation of the “one China” principle and other concessions, the official said.
The last scenario would involve a successful resistance from Ukraine with international support that would force Putin from power, the official said.
This would be encouraging for Taiwan, which could learn from Ukraine how to defend itself and show China the potential consequences of starting a military conflict, they said.
However, each of these scenarios is variable, the official said.
Beijing could decide that peaceful unification is impossible and decide to attack before Taiwan completes its defense preparations, they said, adding that there is always the chance a dictator could externalize domestic problems.
Tropical Storm Gaemi strengthened into a typhoon at 2pm yesterday, and could make landfall in Yilan County tomorrow, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The agency was scheduled to issue a sea warning at 11:30pm yesterday, and could issue a land warning later today. Gaemi was moving north-northwest at 4kph, carrying maximum sustained winds near its center of up to 118.8kph and gusts of 154.8kph. The circumference is forecast to reach eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with the center making landfall in Yilan County later that night before departing from the north coast, CWA weather forecaster Kuan Shin-ping (官欣平) said yesterday. Uncertainty remains and
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
DISRUPTIONS: The high-speed rail is to operate as normal, while several airlines either canceled flights or announced early departures or late arrivals Schools and offices in 15 cities and counties are to be closed today due to Typhoon Gaemi, local governments announced last night. The 15 are: Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Tainan, Keelung, Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as well as Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang counties. People should brace for torrential rainfall brought by the storm, with its center forecast to make landfall on the east coast between tonight and tomorrow morning, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The agency issued a sea warning for the typhoon at 11:30pm on Monday, followed by a land warning at 11:30am yesterday. As of
CASUALTY: A 70-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree in Kaohsiung as the premier warned all government agencies to remain on high alert for the next 24 hours Schools and offices nationwide are to be closed for a second day today as Typhoon Gaemi crosses over the nation, bringing torrential rain and whipping winds. Gaemi was forecast to make landfall late last night. From Tuesday night, its outer band brought substantial rainfall and strong winds to the nation. As of 6:15pm last night, the typhoon’s center was 20km southeast of Hualien County, Central Weather Administration (CWA) data showed. It was moving at 19kph and had a radius of 250km. As of 3pm yesterday, one woman had died, while 58 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operation Center said. The 70-year-old