A weather map issued yesterday shows the projected path of Tropical Storm Choi-Wan.
Photo courtesy of the Central Weather Bureau
The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) yesterday issued a sea warning for Tropical Storm Choi-Wan, saying that as of 2pm, the center of the storm was about 550km south-southwest of Taiwan proper and that it was moving northeast at about 19kph.
Photo courtesy of the Central Weather Bureau
Choi-Wan has a radius of 80km, it said, adding that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 65kph that are gusting up to 90kph.
The bureau issued a sea warning at 4pm as Choi-Wan was weakening slower than expected while approaching the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島), the southernmost part of Taiwan proper in Pingtung County.
However, the bureau forecast that Choi-Wan would be downgraded to a tropical depression.
It would be closest to Taiwan proper from this afternoon to tomorrow morning, the bureau said, adding that it would not rule out the possibility of issuing a land warning during this period.
The system would not directly affect a weather front that is forecast to approach Taiwan tomorrow, the bureau said.
Heeding the sea warning, the government said it would set up a Central Emergency Operation Center to be overseen by National Fire Agency Director-General Chen Wen-lung (陳文龍).
Separately, meteorologist Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) on Wednesday said that typhoon activity should return to normal this summer as La Nina’s effect over the Pacific fades.
La Nina, the cyclical cooling event that has been affecting the tropical Pacific since last year, has been keeping precipitation low, Peng wrote on Facebook.
However, the weather phenomenon has disolved, likely bringing neutral conditions to the region, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday, forecasting above-average air temperatures through August.
Despite the cooling effects of La Nina, the organization cautioned against equating it with a “pause in climate change.”
“La Nina has a temporary global cooling effect, which is typically strongest in the second year of the event,” WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas said. “This means that 2021 has got off to a relatively cool start — by recent standards. This should not lull us into a false sense of security.”
La Nina and its opposite, El Nino, which brings above-average ocean temperatures, affect Taiwan’s spring rains and typhoon season, Peng said.
Without their influence this year, typhoon development should be relatively normal, he added.
Before predicting a precise number, Peng said that observations would have to wait until the plum rains pass and the Pacific high-pressure system takes over.
“The most conservative thing to say is that 26 to 28 typhoons form on average” every year, he said. “Two to four of them are to hit Taiwan.”
People always want to know in which months typhoons occur so that they can prepare, Peng said, adding that preparing in advance is good, but people can still prepare when a typhoon is forecast.
However, he advised against preparing too early, as it could have a “boy who cried wolf” effect.
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