Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) enjoys much more popular support than Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) hopeful Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), according to a poll conducted by the Cross-Strait Policy Association.
Tsai led Hung by 50.2 percent to 29.3 percent, the poll found.
TVBS had released a different poll on Wednesday showing Hung leading.
Photo: Wang Min-wei, Taipei Times
The DPP chairperson outperformed the deputy legislative speaker in all six indicators gauging the two candidates’ “image” in the eyes of respondents, association secretary-general Anson Hung (洪耀南) said.
Anson Hung is also a former chief executive officer of Xfuture.org, also known as the Future Events Exchange (未來事件交易所), which bases its predictions on “prediction markets.”
On leadership, Tsai won a support rating of 45.5 percent against Hung Hsiu-chu’s 31.5 percent; on ability to safeguard Taiwan’s interests, 44.7 percent to 31.6 percent; trustworthiness, 47.3 percent to 32.6 percent; policy feasibility, 39.3 percent to 34.3 percent; understanding of public opinion, 48.6 percent to 28.9 percent; and global perspective, 58.9 percent to 18.6 percent.
In an additional category — cross-strait policy acceptability — the survey used the candidates’ descriptions of their respective cross-strait policy to gauge public opinion.
Again, Tsai found greater support for her stance.
The poll described Tsai’s cross-strait policy as “maintaining the ‘status quo,’ which is to establish consistent, predictable and sustainable cross-strait relations under the Republic of China’s constitutional system.”
Hung Hsiu-chu’s cross-strait policy was described as: “one China, common interpretations (一中同表)” and defining the cross-strait relationship as “two constitutional governments in a whole China.”
Tsai gained an approval rating of 63.1 percent, while 22.4 percent said they disapproved.
Just 31.2 percent of respondents supported the deputy legislative speaker’s cross-strait view, with 51.7 percent disagreeing.
“Tsai, in both global perspective and cross-strait policy, holds a lead of 30 to 40 percentage points, which is quite rare, as the KMT usually has the whip hand on these two issues,” association president Tung Chen-yuan (童振源) said.
Hung has been inching toward the “deep blue” voters, which can be seen with her cross-strait policy, but her strategy has harmed her popularity among swing voters, Tung said.
“On cross-strait relations, Tsai won more support than disapproval, regardless of party affiliation,” he added. “About 88.2 percent of pan-green voters, 48.6 percent of pan-blue voters and 47.7 percent of neutral voters agreed with Tsai on her cross-strait view, while only 13.3 percent of pan-greens, 61 percent of pan-blues and 19.6 percent of neutral voters agreed with Hung’s.”
Tung said that Hung Hsiu-chu might be considered “outspoken” for her stance, but “Taiwanese doubt her [ability] to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty, dignity and interests.”
Generally speaking, the challenger is usually the one who criticizes the ruling party’s policy, and the ruling party candidate supports existing policy. However, Hung Hsiu-chu is the one who is challenging the existing system,” Tung said. “She has said she would propose signing a peace treaty [with China], but we have seen President Ma [Ying-jeou, 馬英九] make the same proposal in 2011, but backtracked after meeting strong opposition.”
“Regarding her ‘one China, common interpretation,’ we all know that there lacks a consensus between [Taiwan and China] over ‘one China,’ which is why the Ma administration has resorted to its ‘1992 consensus’ and ‘respective interpretations’ to obfuscate the issue. However, Hung [Hsiu-chu] is going against the trend by calling for a ‘common interpretation,’ which China would be more than willing to accept. Apparently the definition of the ‘common interpretation’ would not be up to Hung [Hsiu-chu], who would be pressured to adopt China’s ‘one China’ principle,” Tung said.
Association vice president Justin Chen (陳建仲) said that Ma’s low popularity and KMT infighting would be major stumbling blocks.
CLOSE ENCOUNTERS: Several of the PLA fighter jets that crossed the median line of the Strait came within 68km of Hsinchu, drawing warnings from Taiwan, the ministry said At least 18 Chinese military aircraft yesterday flew into the nation’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on the second day of a US delegation’s visit, the Ministry of National Defense said, adding that the military responded by deploying an air defense missile system to monitor their activities. A delegation led by US Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Keith Krach on Thursday started a three-day visit to Taiwan. The ministry from Thursday started publicizing the actions of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in Taiwan’s ADIZ on its Web site and Twitter. According to ministry reports, 18 PLA aircraft
TWO CASES: The five allegedly conspired with conglomerates, threatening the nation’s governance and subverting the rules of ethical conduct, a deputy chief prosecutor said Taipei prosecutors yesterday charged three legislators and one former lawmaker with contravening the Anti-Corruption Act (貪污治罪條例) in a case linked to former Pacific Distribution Investment Co (太平洋流通) chairman Lee Heng-lung’s (李恆隆) battle with the Far Eastern Group (遠東集團) over ownership of the Pacific SOGO Department Store (太平洋崇光百貨) chain, while independent Legislator Chao Cheng-yu (趙正宇) was indicted in a separate case involving two funeral services companies and a plot of land in a national park. Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators Chen Chao-ming (陳超明) and Sufin Siluko (廖國棟), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Su Chen-ching (蘇震清) and former New Power Party legislator
PENGHU INSPECTION: Taiwan cannot let its enemies strut around in its airspace, Tsai said, one day after a Chinese spokesman denied a median line exists in the Taiwan Strait Following China’s assertion on Monday that there is no “median line” in the Taiwan Strait, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) yesterday pledged to defend the nation’s airspace during a visit to an air force base in Penghu, saying that Taiwan cannot allow others to flex their military muscle in its territorial airspace. Tsai praised the “heroic performance” of the pilots of the Indigenous Defense Fighters who have been intercepting Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force planes in recent days. “I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the Republic of China [ROC], how could we let enemies strut
Swedish Member of Parliament Hampus Hagman is pushing for changing the name of the nation’s trade office in Taipei to signal improved relations with “Asia’s perhaps foremost democracy.” Hagman on Wednesday last week proposed renaming the Swedish Trade and Invest Council to “Sweden’s Office in Taipei,” following similar changes by other nations. The Swedish Trade and Invest Council, part of Business Sweden, is owned by the Swedish government and Swedish industry. Taiwan and Sweden share important values such as respect for democracy, human rights, the rule of law and freedom of speech, Hagman said in the motion, adding that the two nations