Some US analysts fear that this year could be a dangerous one, with Taiwan growing diplomatically closer to Beijing and more distant from Washington.
By developing new weapons systems, Beijing hopes to keep the US and other allied forces from “intervening in areas of sensitivity,” Naval War College associate professor Andrew Erickson said.
In a new study published by the National Interest this week, Erickson said that China is trying to persuade Taipei and other regional capitals that Washington’s assistance in the case of a crisis “will be neither reliable nor forthcoming.”
“To further its near-seas interests, China is attempting to undermine the efficacy of, and decrease the likelihood of, involvement by US allied and friendly military forces there,” he said.
China, he said, is on the verge of achieving major breakthroughs in multi-axis cruise-missile strikes, antiship ballistic missiles, antisatellite weapons and navigation satellites.
“Such achievements, coupled with determination to address near-seas disputes, promise to enhance China’s ‘keep out’ capabilities and undermine regional stability,” Erickson said.
An American Enterprise Institute (AEI) academic focusing on national security and foreign policy issues, Michael Rubin, said the US must realize it is in a new “Great Game.”
“While American diplomacy is predicated on the notion of compromises and win-win situations, both the Russians and the Chinese see influence as a zero-sum game and, as a result, whenever we give either an inch, they take a mile and they have no intention of letting go,” Rubin said.
In an interview published by the Washington Times this week, Rubin said there is a clash of philosophies.
The administration of US President Barack Obama is pushing for more inclusion of smaller nations in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and is giving increased support to the ASEAN as a counterweight to China’s growing geopolitical clout in the region.
However, Rubin and senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security Patrick Cronin have both told the Washington Times that the US should be doing more to beef up unilateral, military-based relations with smaller Asian nations.
The idea would be to send a message to China about the “depth and durability” of US interests in key regions.
Washington should be more active and might consider using aircraft carriers as “floating embassies,” Rubin said.
“The reason we don’t take advantage of this enough is because we do not see influence as a zero-sum game the way that the Chinese do. All the countries in the region realize this is the Chinese mentality — we, on the other hand, are wallowing in blissful ignorance of the way our adversaries think,” he said.
As a result, Rubin said, Taiwan and other allies are questioning the US’ commitment and Taipei has become significantly closer to Beijing in recent years “because they see us as unreliable.”
Meanwhile, resident academic at AEI Michael Auslin wrote in a paper that last year was “a wasted year” in East Asia, and that countries in the region failed to solve any foreign-relations problems and face greater tension this year.
Tropical Storm Gaemi strengthened into a typhoon at 2pm yesterday, and could make landfall in Yilan County tomorrow, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The agency was scheduled to issue a sea warning at 11:30pm yesterday, and could issue a land warning later today. Gaemi was moving north-northwest at 4kph, carrying maximum sustained winds near its center of up to 118.8kph and gusts of 154.8kph. The circumference is forecast to reach eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with the center making landfall in Yilan County later that night before departing from the north coast, CWA weather forecaster Kuan Shin-ping (官欣平) said yesterday. Uncertainty remains and
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
DISRUPTIONS: The high-speed rail is to operate as normal, while several airlines either canceled flights or announced early departures or late arrivals Schools and offices in 15 cities and counties are to be closed today due to Typhoon Gaemi, local governments announced last night. The 15 are: Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Tainan, Keelung, Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as well as Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang counties. People should brace for torrential rainfall brought by the storm, with its center forecast to make landfall on the east coast between tonight and tomorrow morning, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The agency issued a sea warning for the typhoon at 11:30pm on Monday, followed by a land warning at 11:30am yesterday. As of
CASUALTY: A 70-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree in Kaohsiung as the premier warned all government agencies to remain on high alert for the next 24 hours Schools and offices nationwide are to be closed for a second day today as Typhoon Gaemi crosses over the nation, bringing torrential rain and whipping winds. Gaemi was forecast to make landfall late last night. From Tuesday night, its outer band brought substantial rainfall and strong winds to the nation. As of 6:15pm last night, the typhoon’s center was 20km southeast of Hualien County, Central Weather Administration (CWA) data showed. It was moving at 19kph and had a radius of 250km. As of 3pm yesterday, one woman had died, while 58 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operation Center said. The 70-year-old