“From the legal standpoint, Taiwan is not part of the Republic of China,” a declassified CIA report on Taiwan written in March 1949 says.
“Pending a Japanese peace treaty, the island remains occupied territory in which the US has proprietary interests,” the report continues.
The report says that communist control of the island would have “seriously unfavorable strategic implications” for the US.
It says that the native population of Taiwan would welcome release from Chinese control, but was not strong enough to stage a successful revolt.
“The Taiwanese are increasingly restive, however, because of the influx of Nationalist officials and military forces, and will become more susceptible to Communist influence,” the report says. Records show that the report, titled Probable Developments in Taiwan, was first declassified about 20 years ago and has since been gathering dust in the National Archives. It was unearthed this week by researchers who believe that it may not have been written about before.
“Assuming US inactivity, Taiwan will eventually pass under the control of the Chinese Communists,” the report says.
“In any US program to prevent this, the advantages to be gained from the strategic military viewpoint would have to be weighed against unfavorable political consequences, the extent of which would vary depending upon the selection and timing of measures for implementing the program,” the report says.
The CIA expected the early establishment of a communist-dominated government over all China and “it can be assumed that such a government would strive to establish its authority in Taiwan.”
When first written in 1949, the report was classified as “secret.”
“There is a strong sentiment in Taiwan favoring autonomy, but the situation is complicated by the conflicting interests of the native Taiwanese and Chinese Nationalist element,” the report says. “The Taiwanese bitterly resent the performance of the Nationalist administration on Taiwan since VJ [Victory over Japan]-day,” it adds.
According to the CIA, the Chinese rulers had exploited the native population “to the limit” without regard for their welfare or the preservation of the island’s resources. The report says that a Nationalist “rump government” on Taiwan could not be relied upon to prevent the communists from gaining control of the island.
“The Nationalist Army, Navy and Air Force are not only inefficient, but their loyalty and will to fight are questionable,” the report says. “In addition, such a refugee regime would be unstable because of the hostility of the local population which, in these circumstances, would be increasingly susceptible to Communist influence.”
The report concludes that the situation in Taiwan was growing more critical for the US because of Taiwanese discontent, Chinese Nationalist preparation of the island as “a last bastion” and increasing Chinese communist interest in, and capabilities toward, the island.
However, the strategic implications to US security of a takeover of Taiwan by China “would be seriously unfavorable,” it says.
Tropical Storm Gaemi strengthened into a typhoon at 2pm yesterday, and could make landfall in Yilan County tomorrow, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The agency was scheduled to issue a sea warning at 11:30pm yesterday, and could issue a land warning later today. Gaemi was moving north-northwest at 4kph, carrying maximum sustained winds near its center of up to 118.8kph and gusts of 154.8kph. The circumference is forecast to reach eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with the center making landfall in Yilan County later that night before departing from the north coast, CWA weather forecaster Kuan Shin-ping (官欣平) said yesterday. Uncertainty remains and
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
DISRUPTIONS: The high-speed rail is to operate as normal, while several airlines either canceled flights or announced early departures or late arrivals Schools and offices in 15 cities and counties are to be closed today due to Typhoon Gaemi, local governments announced last night. The 15 are: Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Tainan, Keelung, Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as well as Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang counties. People should brace for torrential rainfall brought by the storm, with its center forecast to make landfall on the east coast between tonight and tomorrow morning, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The agency issued a sea warning for the typhoon at 11:30pm on Monday, followed by a land warning at 11:30am yesterday. As of
CASUALTY: A 70-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree in Kaohsiung as the premier warned all government agencies to remain on high alert for the next 24 hours Schools and offices nationwide are to be closed for a second day today as Typhoon Gaemi crosses over the nation, bringing torrential rain and whipping winds. Gaemi was forecast to make landfall late last night. From Tuesday night, its outer band brought substantial rainfall and strong winds to the nation. As of 6:15pm last night, the typhoon’s center was 20km southeast of Hualien County, Central Weather Administration (CWA) data showed. It was moving at 19kph and had a radius of 250km. As of 3pm yesterday, one woman had died, while 58 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operation Center said. The 70-year-old